Sunday, April 26, 2009

Thailand: Bodies found at river, Who kill them?

SAME MAN?: A restaurant owner claims the man on the right in a red shirt is security guard Chaiyaporn Kantang, 29, pictured left in an official ID photo. Police investigating the murder of Chaiyaporn and another security guard during the Songkran riots say neither man had an interest in politics.

Questions still remain over bodies found in Chao Phraya River

By: PIYAPORN WONGRUANG and AEKARACH SATTABURUTH

(Bangkok Post) No one denies the deaths were brutal. Their heads and faces bore the marks of savage beatings. Their mouths were gagged with white cloth and their hands were bound tightly behind their backs with blue nylon rope.

Nattapong Pongdee, 23, from Udon Thani, and Chaiyaporn Kantang, 29, from Phrae, both worked as security guards for Krung Thai General Business Services in Lat Phrao. Eleven days ago their bodies were dragged from the Chao Phraya River. Since then their mysterious deaths have become part of the political debate over what really happened during the ``red revolt'' over Songkran and what transpired on Bangkok's streets under a state of emergency decree.

Were they red shirts killed by the military or other forces, as claimed by the opposition, or were they simply victims of a vicious criminal act that happened to take place at the same time as the security crackdown?

During the parliamentary debate last week on the Songkran unrest, opposition Puea Thai party MP for Phrae, Worawat Ua-apinyakul, tried to consolidate previous claims that the two were red shirt supporters who faced a grisly end as a result of the military crackdown. He produced pictures to support his claim, one of which he said showed Chaiyaporn in a red shirt.

Police Lt Col Virat Petcharat, who is heading the investigations into the murders, conceded that the case is difficult to handle as politics has affected police work.

He said police planned to interview the politicians who had made claims that the killings were linked to the riots, but they had to reschedule their plan due to the ongoing political unrest. So far, the police have not found any evidence to link the case to a political motive. The colonel said police had interrogated the dead men's wives and colleagues.

``They said if the two were involved in politics, they would have mentioned this to them somehow,'' he said.

On April 15, Pol Lt Col Virat was informed by radio that there was a body floating in the Chao Phraya River close to Phra Pin Klao Bridge. His team rushed to the scene and found Chaiyaporn's body, clad in a grey-coloured T-shirt T-shirt and trousers, floating near the Phra Arthit pier. His hands were bound with a blue nylon rope and his mouth gagged.

At around 11am, they found another body in the river. It was Nattapong's, in a black T-shirt which had an image of a rescuer carrying a girl's body.

Nattapong's hands were bound with the same type of rope as Chaiyaporn's and his mouth was also gagged.

The doctors who joined the police team concluded from initial examinations of the bodies at the scene that the two had suffered head and facial injuries and had drowned, meaning that they were both still alive when they were thrown in the river.

The bodies were then sent to Siriraj Hospital for autopsies. The autopsy reports have not yet been submitted to police, Lt Col Virat said, adding that it may take a month for the reports to be completed.

The bodies of both men were cremated last week in their home provinces.

The police investigating team was earlier able to interview the men's colleagues and wives. In their report, Nattapong's wife _ Suwanna _ is quoted as saying that on April 13 she was with her her husband who was drinking alcohol with Chaiyaporn at his house near the men's workplace. At around 11pm Nattapong left to drive his wife home. Nattapong then went back and continued drinking until 2am the next morning, one of his workmates who was also at Chaiyaporn's house told police.

The last friends saw of the two men is when they rode off on an orange Honda Wave motorcycle.

``Now, we know where they were and what they did before they died, but we don't know what happened afterwards until we found their bodies,'' said the police colonel. ``From the circumstances, they were tortured and murdered. That is the main clue that we have so far to help lead us to establish a charge.''

Puea Thai party spokesman Prompong Nopparit believes that the deaths are related to the pair's participation in red-shirt gatherings. He cited Chaiyaporn's brother's account that the two went to join the red shirts on April 12 to serve as security guards for the protesters.

According to some residents in the Lat Phrao 106 community, near the company where the two men worked, the pair did have an interest in politics.

The owner of a restaurant where they often had lunch said Chaiyaporn was keen on politics, particularly the ideas of the red-shirts. During the last few months, after exchanging ideas with some red-shirt people at the restaurant, he eventually undertook security guard work for red shirts from the community.

The restaurant owner provided pictures to the Bangkok Post Sunday which he said showed Chaiyaporn wearing a red shirt at one of their recent gatherings. Some pictures were taken as recently as April 8, he said.

``We don't know why they died. But don't rush to ignore the fact that they were involved in politics. What is needed is the truth,'' said the restaurant owner.

READ MORE---> Thailand: Bodies found at river, Who kill them?...

NEW PLAN TO OVERTURN GOVERNMENT

Red shirts to protest every week

MONGKOL BANGPRAPA
Bangkok Post

The red shirt protesters of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship will hold weekly demonstrations and set up an assembly in a fresh effort to topple the Democrat-led government.

The strategy was unveiled by UDD leaders in front of 5,000 protesters gathering at Sanam Luang yesterday.

It was the first rally by the supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra since the Songkran melee and the lifting of the state of emergency.

"We have to think about a new strategy to fight for our causes because we were unable to achieve political change simply by holding mass demonstrations," said UDD leader Jaran Dithapichai.

The UDD will rally every Saturday in one of 15 provinces, including Lop Buri, Ayutthaya, Chiang Mai, Udon Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat and Phatthalung, said another leader Somyos Prueksakasemsuk.

Another major demonstration will be held on May 17 in Bangkok to commemorate the 17th anniversary of the Black May incident in 1992, he added.

The assembly will comprise red shirt representatives from every province.

Yesterday's rally, which ended about 11pm, was broadcast live via websites run by overseas red shirt supporters. The three UDD leaders - Veera Musikaphong, Natthawut Saikua and Weng Tojirakarn - who were released on bail of 500,000 baht each on Friday, did not show up. There was no phone-in from Thaksin.

The organisers showed a video clip of soldiers cracking down on the red shirts in Din Daeng on April 13. Demonstrators at Sanam Luang showed anger at the army.

Mr Jaran demanded the government immediately release all red shirt leaders and demonstrators and set up an independent panel to investigate the clampdown on red shirt demonstrators during the Songkran riots.

He also called on the government to unblock the signal of UDD's television broadcaster, DStation, and allow all pro-UDD community radio stations to resume broadcasting.

Pongthep Thepkanchana, who appeared on stage but did not make any statement to the protesters, told reporters that the government, opposition bloc, People's Alliance for Democracy, UDD and media should be allowed to submit a list of their representatives to sit on the probe committee to ensure fairness and neutrality. About half of the demonstrators opted not to wear red shirts to the rally yesterday, for safety reasons.

Prathum Wangklan, a 51-year-old Bangkok vendor, said he joined the rally because he did not believe media reports about the political situation.

"I have to come here to listen to the truth," said Mr Prathum. "The harder the government tries to suppress the red shirt movement, the more people will join the demonstration," he added.

Jittima Fuksa-ard, 45, from Prachin Buri, said she attended the rally because she was still upset with the violent crackdown on red shirts at Din Daeng.

"I was there [at the pre-dawn raid] and my friend was badly hurt by authorities," she said.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has instructed security officers to monitor the UDD movement and ask the demonstrators to make sure their rallies stay within the law.

Metropolitan police chief Pol Lt Gen Vorapong Chiewpreecha has set up 40 checkpoints, manned by police and soldiers, in inner Bangkok. A special checkpoint was also set up in each area to search for weapons and explosives among those wanting to join the UDD rally at Sanam Luang.

Another rally was in Udon Thani where 300 members showed up at Thung Si Muang. The rally was held to allow red shirts taking part during April 8-11 rallies in Bangkok to talk about what happened.

READ MORE---> NEW PLAN TO OVERTURN GOVERNMENT...

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Red shirts move rally to Bangkok

Emergency rule ends, UDD defies city order

(Bangkok Post) -The anti-government United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship has moved its planned mass rally to Bangkok after the government on Friday lifted the state of emergency.

Today's rally was originally scheduled for other provinces which were not affected by the state of emergency with Samut Sakhon tipped as being the most likely venue.

The protest was relocated to Sanam Luang after Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva declared the lifting of emergency rule at the end of the joint parliamentary meeting in the early hours of yesterday morning.

Parliament wrapped its two-day special joint sitting to debate the crackdown on UDD red shirt demonstrators.

A government source said Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban called a meeting with security authorities to discuss the lifting of the state of emergency as parliament was about to adjourn on Thursday night.

The source said Mr Abhisit was concerned that emergency rule, if it was prolonged, would backfire on the government.

The source said national police chief Pol Gen Patcharawat Wongsuwon pledged to speed up criminal cases against leaders of the UDD and of the People's Alliance for Democracy in efforts to return peace to society.

Hundreds of cases are being processed in connection with street protests by both camps.

UDD leader Somyos Prueksakasemsuk said the planned rally would not be prolonged. It would begin about 5pm and disperse about 11pm.

It would tackle alleged government intimidation of UDD leaders, pressure the government to unblock the signal of its television broadcaster, D Station, and ask it to guarantee freedom of expression of red shirt protesters.

Like ASTV which supports the PAD, the UDD's satellite TV station is a communication channel and has been the mouthpiece of the red shirt supporters.

"The government should stop violating our rights of free speech. Blocking D Station's signal will only make red shirts more upset and force us to hold street protests," said Mr Somyos, who is one of the UDD's "second-generation" leaders.

All pro-UDD community radio stations must also be allowed to resume broadcasts, he added.

Mr Somyos said today's rally had nothing to do with other UDD leaders. "The decision to rally was made by the second-generation leaders, who felt upset with the Abhisit government's attempt to suppress the red shirt movement," he said. "It's now purely a people's movement."

Mr Somyos shrugged off City Hall's order to ban the UDD from using Sanam Luang for today's gathering. He said the protesters had no choice but to resist it .

According to Mr Somyos, there will be no phone-in by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thaksin is in Liberia this week scouting for business opportunities in Africa, Reuters reported yesterday.

"I have come to visit Liberia to explore business opportunities in the areas of mining, agriculture and gas exploration," Thaksin said after meeting the West African country's vice-president earlier this week.

Small UDD rallies were also expected to take place today in Udon Thani, Chiang Mai and Phatthalung.

Mr Suthep said he instructed police to step up security for the main UDD rally but threatened to take legal action if the rally turned ugly or was deemed to be inciting fresh unrest.

Puea Thai MP and UDD leader Jatuporn Prompan, however, said he was unlikely to join the rally. He would talk to other UDD leaders first.

Mr Abhisit said the lifting of emergency rule was an indication of the government's determination to reconcile differences in society.

"By lifting the state of emergency we are sending a signal to the international community that normalcy has been restored," he said.

However, troops would remain deployed in certain locations where there was still public concern about security.

The UDD protest at Sanam Luang could proceed as long as it did not cause trouble, he said.

Mr Abhisit reiterated that he was ready to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections but it should not happen before the charter is amended.

The political crisis would worsen if elections were organised when those rules that were seen as problematic had not been revised.

He said constitutional amendments would address the UDD's demands for democracy and reconciliation.

Meanwhile, the opposition Puea Thai party yesterday pressed on with its accusations that the military resorted to violence to disperse the UDD supporters during recent street protests.

Puea Thai spokesman Prompong Nopparit said the party would lodge complaints against Mr Abhisit with police and the National Anti-Corruption Commission.

During the two-day debate, Puea Thai MPs submitted to parliament "proof" of military violence.

Senator Somchai Sawaengkarn yesterday warned the government not to rush into charter amendments.

He said a panel should be first set up to review the charter.

He also welcomed the government's proposal for a parliamentary committee to investigate the military crackdown on the red shirt protesters.

READ MORE---> Red shirts move rally to Bangkok...

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Thai PM: amnesty on the table

In the interest of national reconciliation, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva (above with Deputy PM Suthep Thaugsuban) says that he is seriously considering giving amnesty to all banned politicians.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, right, shares a laugh with Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban before attending a meeting at the Democrat party headquarters yesterday. The two were in good spirits after surviving the protests by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship last week. Photo: CHANAT KATANYU

Banned politicians may receive second chance

By ANUCHA CHAROENPO

(Bangkok Post) -Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has brushed aside calls for a cabinet reshuffle but is not ruling out the possibility of pushing for an amnesty for politicians banned from politics.

The prime minister has rejected the idea of talks with convicted former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to end the political impasse, as suggested by leaders of the industrial sector.

Mr Abhisit said he had no intention of changing his cabinet members in the wake of the red shirt riots and complaints from his coalition partners about working with Deputy Prime Minister Korbsak Sabhavasu.

Mr Abhisit stressed that any attempts to bring about national reconciliation must be based on righteousness and the rule of law. Granting amnesty to criminal convicts or those facing criminal charges was out of the question.

"I confirm that I'm ready to talk with anyone who acts in line with the law and does not condone violence," the prime minister said.

The government is ready to look at the possibilities of giving amnesty to politicians who were found guilty of political crimes, he said.

Mr Abhisit said certain controversial issues involving political reform and constitution amendments may be put forward for public hearing.

The joint parliamentary session of the House of Representatives and the Senate will be held on Wednesday and Thursday to discuss ways to end the political conflict.

The political reform plan and the proposed constitution amendments are expected to be raised during the joint session.

The prime minister insisted the government would try to do all it could to arrest other United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship leaders who are on the run from police.

He also stressed the government would lift the state of emergency in Bangkok and surrounding provinces as quickly as possible.

However, People's Alliance for Democracy coordinator Suriyasai Katasila has opposed the constitution rewrite and amnesty proposals.

He said he did not believe the proposals would bring about national reconciliation. They would further stoke the political crisis. An amnesty would cause public mistrust of the government's political reform, which would be seen as nothing but a compromise of interests among politicians, Mr Suriyasai said.

He said the premier might have been pressured by coalition parties to bow to their demands for the constitution amendments and the granting of an amnesty.

Former Thai Rak Thai leader Chaturon Chaisaeng said the prime minister's amnesty proposal was not genuine.

It was meant only to clear the name of leaders of the PAD, not to solve the political problems, Mr Chaturon said.

He said the PAD had violated the law and damaged the country and should not be treated the same way as politicians who were harassed after the military coup of Sept 19, 2006.

Interior Minister Chavarat Charnvirakul denied his Bhumjaithai party had pressured the prime minister to grant an amnesty to the banned politicians.

He said the proposed charter amendment was one way to ease political tensions.

But Deputy Interior Minister Boonjong Wongtrairat, also from Bhumjaithai, said the party disagreed with the amnesty proposal. The party does not support legislation that would only benefit a particular person or a particular group of people.

Government whip chief Chinnaworn Bunyakiat stressed that amnesty must not be granted to those charged with corruption, criminal offences and inciting riots and unrest.

He supported the push for a draft bill on the regulation of public gatherings, saying if enacted, the bill would make it easier for state authorities to handle gatherings without the need to invoke emergency rule.

The government whip will ask political parties to consider and endorse the bill.

Puea Thai MP for Yasothon Peeraphan Palusuk said the party would push for the revival of the 1997 constitution, which was abrogated by the military coup, to replace the present constitution.

All political parties would be asked to hold talks to decide whether to adopt the 1997 constitution in its entirety or only some parts of it.

Mr Peeraphan said Puea Thai had insisted on doing away with some controversial provisions of the present charter which deals with the dissolution of political parties.

READ MORE---> Thai PM: amnesty on the table...

Monday, April 20, 2009

The soul of the country - Thailand

Bangkok Post - I would like to make a few observations about Thailand. They are all pertinent to the recent political situation, but they look at different issues that have arisen from the crisis.

1. What is the democratic justification used to rationalise permitting a convicted felon, who has fled from detention in his home country and has a large following and bank account, to freely call in to foment revolution?

I cannot think of examples from countries like the US, France, the UK or Germany where this has happened.

2. How can people realistically compare the behaviour of the red shirts with that of the yellow shirts?

The latter certainly are not to be exonerated in what they did.

But the red shirts took their protest to levels that the yellow shirts never even verged on. The yellow shirts were non-violent (with a few exceptions, but these were mostly defensive actions).

The red shirts behaved as animals, with an overt aim to destroy and injure. No government officials were dragged from their cars and beaten by the PAD, whereas as the UDD made clear in their actions and rhetoric this was one of their tactics.

The PAD did not engage in the wanton destruction of property of ordinary citizens, whereas the UDD did so with reckless abandon, seemingly enjoying it. And the PAD did not murder fellow citizens in cold blood, as did the UDD in Bangkok. Any comparison between the two groups ended when the UDD actively tried to create a revolution in the streets.

They are animals.

3. Why do Thais seem to be so concerned about how they look in the eyes of the world, rather than with the inherent righteousness of what is happening?

I have lived in the US, Latin America and Europe, and never have I heard so consistently some variation of the phrase, ''what will the world think?'' which is so often used by Thais when discussing problems in the country (political strife, corruption, etc). Why can't Thais learn to evaluate and justify actions (or criticisms) based on what is right, ie, inherently moral, ethical, honest, decent, etc.

Instead, they are much more concerned with what the outside world thinks.

Is there no set of universal ''rights'' in Buddhism? We all know that there is, but since they are rarely presented in this context, one assumes that they are not persuasive arguments to use when trying to influence behaviour.

4. When will Thais realise that what is happening in politics right now is a battle for the soul of the country? So many groups are up in arms about what this is doing to (for instance) tourism, investment or business in general.

It is understandable why people in the tourism industry, who may be forced out of business or a job, lament the effects that the situation is having on them. But they are missing the point.

The people in these movements may care a lot about Thailand, but they don't give one damn about the effects that their actions are having on the country's economy. In their minds, they are fighting for a much higher cause than simply maintaining the tourist numbers. It is the soul of the country that they are trying to effect.

CONCERNED FOR THAILAND

READ MORE---> The soul of the country - Thailand...

Thai PM seeks a just solution

Across-the-board nod to constitutional changes

By: PRADIT RUANGDIT and AEKARACH SATTABURUTH

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has given political parties two weeks to propose amendments to the constitution which will help defuse tensions.

Mr Abhisit yesterday said the effort to get people talking could address the political conflicts which drove people on to the streets and into committing violence.

"To those who are still protesting and demanding democracy, I assure you that the government is ready to respond by inviting parties to brainstorm," Mr Abhisit said on his weekly television chat.

"Let us use a peaceful method, a legal procedure, a dialogue to reach the goal. It may also tackle the root cause of the protests and political strife." The prime minister expects the parties to submit details of constitutional provisions they found unjust or undemocratic.

The proposals would be put to the public for debate.

Mr Abhisit said he was open to changing a provision of the constitution on political wrongdoing.

The controversial Article 237 deals with the dissolution of political parties.

The provision calls for the dissolution of a party if its leader or executive members are found guilty of electoral fraud. All executives of the party are banned from politics for five years should the provision be invoked.

Mr Abhisit said there should be a distinction between political wrongdoing and criminal charges such as rioting, corruption and abuse of power.

He also defended his own government's imposition of emergency rule and the legal action taken against protest leaders in the wake of the violence over Songkran.

He said security authorities had not applied double standards when dealing with the People's Alliance for Democracy and the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship protests.

"Arrest warrants are sought against people who declare they will continue fighting. Some of them even say their operations will be clandestine. It is an obvious threat to national security.

"If last year's protesters [the PAD] declared that they would act as a threat to national security, they too would have been subject to arrest warrants." Mr Abhisit has instructed police to speed up investigations into all pending cases to ensure justice.

He said the measures were being taken to restore peace and allow the government to tackle "real problems" which include the economic downturn and unemployment.

Dissolving the House now was unlikely to solve any problem as long as there remains social divisions.

"Elections could be marred with violence. It will worsen the image of democratic society in Thailand," he said.

Mr Abhisit's call for charter amendments, especially to the contentious provisions, was welcomed by his coalition partners and the Puea Thai party.

Sanan Kachornprasart, of Chart Thai Pattana, said Mr Abhisit's approach left the door open for negotiation, which was welcome.

"The charter amendments will leave room to breathe. When peace returns to the streets, a House dissolution and fresh elections can lift the country out of the crisis," he said.

Chumpol Silpa-archa, leader of Chart Thai Pattana, suggested that the Election Commission and the Supreme Court get involved in considering an amnesty for party executives who were not involved in electoral fraud.

Puea Thai MP for Yasothon Pirapan Palusuk said the party agreed with the charter amendments, and thought the process should not take more than two months.

He believed two charter amendments and two fresh elections should be enough to mend social divisions.

"After the amendments, Mr Abhisit should call new elections. A new parliament then amends the charter, dissolves the House and calls for fresh elections. Through this we can end the problem of 'colour politics'," he said.

Thossaporn Serirak, a banned executive from the Thai Rak Thai party, welcomed the proposed changes to the charter but said the cases against deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra should be reviewed.

He said the Ratchadaphisek land trial in which Thaksin was found guilty and sentenced to two years in prison was a result of the 2006 coup.

He said investigators of the dissolved Assets Scrutiny Committee were appointed by the coup-makers and some were biased.

READ MORE---> Thai PM seeks a just solution...

Thai PM open to amnesty idea

By The Nation

Abhisit, however, rules out pardon for those involved in criminal acts

The government will push for political reform as part of the healing process following the recent political mayhem, although any amnesty would only extend to political offences and not criminal violations for provoking uprisings, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said yesterday.

"I remain open-minded about amnesty for political wrongdoing based on what many say are unfair laws, but will definitely draw the line on criminal violations, such as inciting riots," he said. :)

All political parties have been asked to submit their reports within two weeks outlining issues to be covered in the charter rewrite, he said.

Politicians of all stripes should work together to improve the political system instead of casting suspicion on one another, he said.

Before the turmoil, the government tried but made no headway in launching the reform process because opposition lawmakers were doubtful about the political neutrality in selecting the charter writers, he said.

All stakeholders were promised a say in the reform process, he said.

The coalition partners have also been applying pressure on the Abhisit government to embark on amnesty legislation and political reform in order to solidify political stability and prepare for a fresh general election later this year.

This came out of a meeting between Abhisit and key coalition partners at the home of Niphon Phromphan, the secretary to the prime minister.

Spurred into action by the political turmoil, the coalition partners would like the government to work on a pardon for politicians banned by the Constitution Court after their parties were found to have been involved in election fraud.

The meeting agreed that all parties should try to keep the government moving so that the fiscal budget could be passed before any new election is called later this year, probably in September.

Direk Thungphang, a senator from Nonthaburi, said the Senate would convene today to discuss how to end the political impasse and ways to reform the Constitution, which is the root cause of the current crisis.

"We have sent a message to the prime minister that he should not be stubborn in his resolve to tackle political instability. He should aim at rewriting the Constitution,'' he said.

Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan also called on the Abhisit government to accelerate the reconciliation process so that Thailand could successfully host the Asean Summit.

Never before has the Asean Summit with dialogue partners been postponed for political reasons, he said.

The Thai government must invite the ambassadors of the 15 member countries of Asean and its dialogue partners to consult on the new date for the summit, which had to be postponed from the week before due to the red-shirt protests.

Meanwhile, Sondhi Limthong-kul, the target of an assassination attempt last Friday, has been recovering satisfactorily and has been moved out of the ICU unit at Chulalongkorn Hospital.

READ MORE---> Thai PM open to amnesty idea...

Thai Army linked to summit violence

By Lindsay Murdoch in Bangkok

ELEMENTS of Thailand's powerful military, loyal to the disgraced former leader Thaksin Shinawatra, wanted to humiliate the Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, by allowing protesters to overrun - and force the cancellation of - the recent ASEAN summit, analysts say.

The 5000-strong security force, deployed at the beach resort of Pattaya, failed to stop several hundred protesters storming the venue of the Association of South-East Asian Nations meeting. The protesters had publicly declared days before that they would try to disrupt the summit.

Despite the threat, neither the chief of police, Patcharawat Wongsuwan, nor the head of the army, Anupong Paochinda, was in Pattaya to supervise the summit security operation.

Thai media have reported that Mr Abhisit sidelined General Anupong after the summit's cancellation as red-clad pro-Thaksin protesters moved from Pattaya to Bangkok, where they rampaged through the streets.

Thanong Khanthong, editor of the English-language newspaper The Nation, described the Pattaya security failure as a "dark plot" against Mr Abhisit, who has led a fragile coalition government for four months.

These accusations against elements of the army, which styles itself as defender of the nation, come as questions are asked about the role played by security forces in the attempted assassination on Friday of the political leader Sondhi Limthongkul. Five gunmen used high-powered military-issue AK-47 and M-16 automatic weapons to spray Sondhi's vehicle with more than 100 bullets. He survived.

Sondhi's People's Alliance for Democracy has accused the military of being behind the assassination attempt. "The shooting with assault rifles bore the hallmarks of work by men in uniform during emergency rule," said a party spokesman, Suriyasai Katasila.

Somkiat Pongpaiboon, the party's co-leader, called for the removal of security chiefs.

While Mr Abhisit has blamed the army and police for failing to protect 12 regional leaders at the ASEAN summit he has resisted calls to move immediately against the commanders responsible. He told journalists at the weekend that the Government faces many tough challenges and now is not the time to make personnel changes.

"I feel the policemen and soldiers did not do their jobs to the best of their ability," he said in his first public comment on the storming of the Royal Cliff Beach Hotel on April 11.

Asia's most powerful leaders were forced to flee the hotel, some escaping via the rooftop by helicopter. Kevin Rudd was en route as the violence erupted and his plane turned around mid-air and returned to Australia.

Thanong, a well connected analyst, said that in the wake of the ASEAN incident, Mr Abhisit hastily assembled a special command centre under his direction. "Veterans and some retired generals came to his rescue," he said. "Anupong's troops and the police could not be trusted and were edged out of the scene."

Mr Abhisit has been praised for his handling of the Bangkok violence, in which two people died and more than 120 were injured.

Thanong said that Mr Abhisit used security forces brought to Bangkok from the provinces to confront the protesters, most of whom were being paid a daily wage to provoke unrest.

Regarding the shooting of Sondhi, the national deputy police chief, Jongrak Jutanond, cautioned against blaming the military. "Some people might have such an impression, but police work on evidence," Lieutenant-General Jongrak said.

A government spokesman, Panitan Wattanayagorn, also said the weapons did not necessarily indicate state involvement. "These weapons can be purchased anywhere," he said.

A state of emergency remains in place in Bangkok.

SMH

READ MORE---> Thai Army linked to summit violence...

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Where Thaksin went wrong

By Voranai Vanijaka

(Bangkok Post) - Remember hundreds of thuggish men armed with axes, machetes and other weapons attempting to take over Bangkok and succeeding in vandalising the Royal Cliff Beach Resort's convention centre in Pattaya?

Remember an angry mob trying to kidnap Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and sending Asean leaders scurrying away? Secretary-general to the PM Niphon Phromphan left with broken ribs?

Remember gas trucks planted in different areas in Bangkok - their explosions can wipe out entire city blocks?

Remember reports of two civilians supposedly gunned down by the red shirts; taunting and wielding of weapons, burning of buses and tyres?

Remember that one guy, who unzipped and urinated on the street, in an act of mocking defiance, in front of soldiers and all the cameras?

Remember - and this is by far my favourite - the two red-shirt women ranting and raving, running up to a group of men? One, a flabby woman perhaps in her forties, took off her shirt, revealing a black bra, in rage, posturing and taunting the men? While the other one simply jumped on a man and attacked him?

Images on TV. What went through your mind while watching? Many thoughts, no doubt. Though I would venture that most of our thoughts more or less came to the same conclusion. Which was: "Holy crap! Somebody better do something! Call in the marines! Where's spider-man?! These thugs are going nuts! Wait a sec! Are they gonna come after me next?" Chaos, anarchy, the absence of law - scary stuff.

That, fellow citizens, residents, illegals and everyone else, is why Thaksin Shinawatra and the red shirts failed in their uprising. He wanted, needed popular backing. But instead of inspiring and rallying, the red shirts scared the pah khao ma (traditional sarong), the Gucci pants and fisherman's pants off the poor, the rich and the farang respectively alike.

TV images of thugs running amok all over the city is too unsavoury. It turned public opinion against him. Not all, of course. But enough to lose the Songkran War for Thaksin.

Thaksin was banking on his popularity, sure of a mass uprising to support him and oust the Democrat-led coalition government, paving the way for his exoneration and return to power - that was the goal. It could have happened. I, for one, have always thought that Thaksin is the most popular man in Thailand. Well, next to singing sensations Golf & Mike, of course - we Thais have our priorities straight.

But alas, it wasn't meant to be.

You can blame it on poor generalship. Whoever is chief adviser to Thaksin should be fired. Hire me instead. I want a flat in London and a life-time supply of free chips at a Cambodian casino. I read Sun Tzu's Art of War once in elementary school, so I'm qualified!

Why did yellow succeed and red fail? Both started as peaceful demonstrations, then graduated to terrorism.

The PAD's "final solution" was taking the airport hostage. Sure, there were weapons, violence and deaths. But there was also organisation to the movement. Key leaders were always visible, leading the charge, keeping the mob under control. For the rest of us Thais, Suvarnabhumi is way over there - isolated, way, way, way over there. It was annoying. It was unfortunate. It was inconvenient. But it did not threaten people of their properties. It's not right outside our windows. Unless a trip was planned, it didn't directly touch us.

The UDD's "final solution", on the other hand, was to take over Bangkok. Oops. Who thought that one up? An armed mob running amok all over the city. Key leaders were nowhere in sight. Citizens were threatened and killed. Yup, that will win over public opinion alright. Their actions were way, way, way too near and menacing for comfort. People's revolution? Nope, mob rule.

Like in many cultures and societies, we Thais too prefer to bury our heads in a rice bowl - see no evil, hear no evil - as long as evil is a safe distance away. But this one was right in our faces, and no amount of mascara or skin-whitening cream could hide our terror. It's a matter of proximity, and we won't stand for it.

The red shirts came undone because of images on TV. No wonder they threatened the media with violence, for being so bias as to capture realities with cameras.

So here we are. PM Abhisit emerged from the Songkran War looking prettier than he usually does. People are quick to forgive his earlier misjudgment and indecisiveness. He recovered well enough. Through careful orchestration, and perhaps sheer luck, the military did not end up killing anyone - at least not that we know of at the moment. Many now call him a national hero for exercising the virtue of patience and taking control of the situation.

Thaksin, meanwhile, in reports from Dubai on Friday, has softened his stan

ce and said he's willing to talk. Well, that's what he said.

Is it over? Of course not. Also on Friday, there was an attempted assassination on PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul. Fortunately, if not miraculously, he survived a close range attack by gunmen with automatic weapons, who fired almost 100 rounds. Well, whatever Buddhist relic Sondhi was wearing, look for copies to become the hottest selling items in Thailand since Roti Boy. Anyway, this conflict might go underground and get even uglier.

Is it over? Of course not. This is beyond Thaksin, Sondhi, red or yellow. History has shown that, be it coup, murder, corruption, uprising, terrorism or whatever other evils the rich and powerful orchestrated - rarely, if at all, does anyone ever get punished. Rarely, if at all, does anyone ever get held responsible. So there will always continue to be coups, murders, corruption, uprisings, terrorism and others. Why not? Rarely, if at all, are there ever any repercussions.

Is it over? Of course not. This is beyond Thaksin, Sondhi, red or yellow. When disaster strikes due to the incompetence and ineptitude of officials, no one is ever fired or jailed. At worst, they get transferred to continue being incompetent in another government post. How that's for encouraging criminals into believing they stand a good chance of terrorising the country?

All these, of course, are mai pen rai. But don't post any inappropriate content on the internet, or the wrath will be upon you like white on jasmine rice! We Thais have our priorities straight.

voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th

READ MORE---> Where Thaksin went wrong...

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Abhisit is preparing a reshuffle

Posted by Thanong
From one of the blogger by the name of DTC:

THANONG:
Perhaps I missed your answer.

I previously inquired regarding your perspectives on what Thailand needs to do to solve our political problems.

Assume you are PM Abhisit. What would be your immediate goals - within a week and a month? Also, what would be your strategy for abating the Clear & Present Danger of the State?

Let me put it this way:

Thailand and other countries request you publicly and distinctly pronounce the sequential steps of your policy for achieving security and harmony for the country. All your deeds are to be pursuant Thai law.

You are on air. All Thais and other countries are listening. The floor is yours.

What would be your course of action – all to be in line with Thai law and in the interest of the State?
________________________________

RESPONSE:
My take is as follows:

Most people don't understand the structure of Thai politics. Police and military form a shadow government of their own. Their positions are as fluid as water on a lotus leaf. These two organisations, including the other intelligence agencies, are responsible for maintaining law and order during this time of turmoil. Now most of leaders of the security-maintaining apparatuses have sided either with Red Shirts or Blue Shirts against Abhisit, who is now swimming among the sharks.

Abhisit has come to power via politics in December 2008. His role is to initiate policies and run the government. But the military and police and other agencies already exist as independent turfs. They do not necessary answer to Abhisit or the government. There lies the complications of Thai politics as the heads of the military, police and agencies play musical chairs or jockeying for power. Their role is never static. They change their positions all the time.

Thaksin's coup attempt has been revealed (read my previous blogs). There was no pro-democracy movement among the Red Shirts, who ravaged Bangkok only as a pretext. You have to divide the Red Shirts into two: Those sitting at the Government House and those shutting out some 35 key traffic points in Bangkok for terrorim purposes. By bringing out three gas-tank trucks, with eight tonnes of gas, they were holding Bangkok as their hostage. Almost 20 years ago, a gas tank with only one tone of gas overturned on Petchaburi Road, and it caused huge damage to the people's life and properties. Now we are talking about 8 tonnes of gas, capable of mass destruction.

At the Cabinet meeting on Friday, Abhisit recounted the terror of the Red Shirts, who were determined to cause him severe injury or even to kill him while he was trapped on Sunday inside the Interior Ministry.

"He was soaked with sweat, shattered with the horror. He could have vomited out from the spasm of his muscle in the face of the terror," a friend of mine told me.

If the Red Shirts were for real, as my professor friend at Chulalongkorn University has kept on ranting in his countless interviews, they would have continued the rally until they had achieved the purpose of changing the government. Why did the Red Shirts abruptly end the rally on April 14 after about a forthnight while the Yellow Shirts could sustain the rally for more than 100 days? The answer is that when the money stopped flowing, the rally could only lay dead in the water.

Thaksin would only finance the scheme until Songkran or a few more days if necessary, if his people's revolution -- in fact there is no people's revolution of any sort but only military coup on his behalf -- could bring about the result. As it turned out, the military has been subdued and the police has been edged out (through the emergency decree). This has allowed Abhisit to take control over the situation.

Since Thaksin recognised that the military and police could not move, while the public sentiment turned badly against the Red Shirts, he called for an end of the people's revolution. When the money stopped flowing, Veera Musikapong & Co could only stop.

No money, no rally. The plug was pulled off suddenly, causing the Red Shirts to disperse like bees fleeing their hibe.

But Thaksin would not stop here because he is now wanted by Thai law on his role in the ravaging of Bangkok on Songkran Day. Once formal investigation is launched, it would trace the turmoil back to Thaksin in spite of his denial of any riots or act of espionage. Thaksin keeps on mumbling that the Red Shirts are for pro-democracy and peaceful resolution.

What can Abhisit do to restore normalcy to the situation?

He might probably have to reshuffle the heads of the police and military pretty soon, including those responsible for national intelligence service. All the intelligence service has broken down during the turmoil, failing to help provide Abhisit with the true assessment of the dangerous situation. For example, Abhisit should have been warned about the Red Shirts' threat to the Asean Summit in Pattaya. But the warning did not come to him. Suthep Thuagsuban, the deputy prime minister in charge of national security, also made it sound that there would be no problem with the Red Shirts at Pattaya.

So Abhisit will need his allies at the military, police and intelligence agencies. When Obama came to the White House, he could up a new team at all the federal agencies, which immediately fell into their ranks and acted in unity to support his presidency. In Thailand, a new government cannot expect to get cooperation from the law and order or national security agencies outright.

On April 21, the Democrats will hold a meeting among themselves to assess the situation. At that meeting, the role of Suthep is likely to be discussed. Um............

Trairong Suwannakhiri might be asked to step into the Cabinet to help restore confidence in the economic management. Sathit Wongnongteoi might lose his job as minister attached to the Office of the Prime Minister in charge of PR.

If the leaders of the Red Shirts are subdued, the Red Shirts movement among the grass-roots will also be brought under control. Abhisit will need to speak out and reach out to them, telling them that the government understands their anger and their needs. But to do so, the government must be more effective. This is Abhisit's drawback, effective PR to educate the Red Shirts and effective government to reach out to the Red Shirts.

READ MORE---> Abhisit is preparing a reshuffle...

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Emergency decree stays

PM calls on cooperation from all sides, is open to public debate

(Nation Multimedia) - Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday said the state of emergency would remain in place even though the authorities had managed to bring the anti-government protests to a peaceful end.

"The situation has been eased and is almost back to normal. But the mission of the emergency decree has not been completed. The government will not be careless, and we will be closely monitoring the situation," he said in a televised national address.

Abhisit said military officers, police and civil servants would remain on alert for possible attacks on public utilities.

He also declared tomorrow and Friday public holidays, extending this year's Songkran break to 10 days. The long holiday began last Friday when the government designated it a public holiday after red shirts blocked Victory Monument and caused traffic chaos in Bangkok.

The prime minister said the two extra days off would allow relevant officials to clean up the mess left behind by the riots on Monday and the two weeks or so of rallies around Government House.

He explained the authorities needed time to remove possible harmful objects and the charred debris of public buses.

Abhisit's televised address yesterday evening came after red-shirt leaders abandoned their positions around Government House around midday. The protesters were surrounded by troops supported by crowds of angry civilians fed up after several days of bedlam.

The PM said he regarded the peaceful end of the turmoil "a victory for all of society" rather than a win-or-lose situation for any particular person.

He called on those unhappy with the present political system to become engaged in public debate and help find solutions for the ongoing political conflicts.

"You don't have to hold protests in the streets. I invite all groups to discuss political solutions for our country to move forward and the benefit of everyone in our society," the premier said. "It is time we restored our country. We will have to overcome all of the difficulties together."

Protest leaders Veera Musigapong, Weng Tochirakarn and Natthawut Saikua yesterday surrendered when security forces advanced towards the last major protest site. Two other key leaders - Jakrapob Penkair and Jatuporn Promphan - were not found there.

The Criminal Court yesterday also issued arrest warrants for fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra and 13 protest leaders for inciting violence and assembling illegally during a state of emergency, which was declared on Sunday.

Most red-clad protesters yesterday afternoon boarded some 50 buses provided by the state to take them to bus terminals, so they could return home upcountry. Others drove their vehicles parked near the protest site.

Smaller groups of protesters held noisy gatherings at a few locations in the city, such as Sanam Luang. They no longer wore red but told passers-by that troops had used live bullets during Monday's crackdown - a claim Army spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd said was untrue.

He said the military would be on alert in all Bangkok districts following intelligence reports of possible acts of sabotage.

A public opinion poll conducted by Rajabhat Suan Dusit University among 1,207 people between Monday and yesterday found 64 per cent of the respondents were satisfied with how the government dealt with the rioters.

In a related development, the international ratings agency Standard and Poor's has lowered Thailand's local currency rating from "A" to "A-", saying the outlook was negative and could be downgraded further, Associated Press reported yesterday. The country's foreign-currency rating was left unchanged at "BBB+" with a negative outlook.

READ MORE---> Emergency decree stays...

Where is Abhisit?

by Thanong, Reader : 66 , 11:39:19

Avoiding the water spash

11:30 AM

The streets of Bangkok have returned to normal since Tuesday April 14, 2009 when the core leaders of the Red Shirt protesters have called it quit. But Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva would still can't trust the volatile situation. He has announced two additional holiday days -- April 16 and 17 -- to make the whole week a public holiday during this Songkran Festival.

During the Songran Festival, you would normally see a Thai prime ministers get a big spash. But since this is an abnormal Songkran, Abhisit would not come out on the streets to throw water at the Thai people.

He and his family are now believed to be staying at a safe house, guarded by top security measures. The military could kidnap him any time, like what they did to Lt Gen Chatichai Choonhavan, the former prime minister, who lost his power in the 1991 military coup.

Yesterday I had dinner at a nice restaurant with my friends on the bank of the Chao Phya River in the Pak Kred area across Rama IV Bridge. As I drove home and about to take the Rama IV Bridge at around mid night, I saw a small unit of soldiers guarding the bridge. Further away along the Chaeng Wattana Road, another small unit of soldiers was also maintaining security. The soldiers were eyeing any suspicious vehicles entering the capital. Fortunately, they did not stop my car.

We so far have seen over the past few days Abhisit appear on national TV to update the Thai public the latest development of the situation. Judging by all the top military commanders and security officials sitting behind him, we can deduce that Abhisit is fully in charge.

If you may recall, after Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat announced a State of Emergency over the Government House crisis and the airport crisis respectively, all the TV cameras focused on Gen Anupong Paochinda, the army chief. After the announcement of the State of Emergency, a Thai prime minister normally hands over the task of maintaining all the security measures to the military chief, whose role will eclipse the police forces.

And you may also recall that in both incidents during the Samak and Somchai government, Gen Anupong stood firm against the governments by declining to use military troops to disperse the Yellow Shirt protesters. He declared that he would not use force against Thai civilians and urged the governments to rely on peaceful negotiations or political means to end the crisis. Gen Anupong's stature rose higher than those of both Samak and Somchai as the crises developed.

With the military rallying behind Gen Anupong, both Samak and Somchai could not move. As a result, we had a stalemate until the Constitution Court removed the Somchai government from office. Only then did the Yellow Shirt crowd disperse after more than 100 days of marathon anti-government protest.

Gen Anupong is locked out

Returning to the present situation, we have yet to see a firm face of Gen Anupong. Apparently, he has been locked out. After declaring the State of Emergency on Sunday, Abhisit Vejjajiva took full charge over the whole situation. He did not hand over the task of maintaining security to Gen Anupong. On TV, Gen Anupong sat among the other top generals with his grim face further away from Abhisit. You can detect power from the positions people sit.

Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, the defence minister, Pol Chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan, and Suthep did not looked very happy either.

It was not until he had to flee on helicopter on Saturday from Royal Cliff Beach Resort and Hotel in Pattaya, the venue of the doomed Asean Summit, did the prime minister realise that he was a target of a dark plot. Abhisit had been warned by Chuan Leekpai, his mentor, that he should not trust the security arrangement measures in Pattaya. But Abhisit brushed Chuan's concern aside, believing that Suthep Thuagsuban, his big brother, would be able to handle the situation.

As it turned out, military and police forces of 4,000-5,000 thousands allowed some several hundred Red Shirt protesters, led by Arismun Pongruangrong, to break into the Royal Cliff without paying heed to the security of the prime minister, the regional leaders and Thailand's guests. Once Arismun was inside the lobby of the hotel, he called for his Red Shirt protesters to hunt down for Abhisit. "Go look for the prime minister. Go get him," he shouted.

The Asean Summit had to be cancelled out in big embarassment.

In other countries, Arismun and the Red Shirt protesters would have been shot on spot. But they were allowed to wander about the lobby of the Royal Cliff as if they were going for a walk at Sanam Luang. Only five of the Red Shirt protesters at Pattaya, including Arismun, have been issued arrest warrants.

Abhisit had to flee the scene by helicopter.

Taking charge command centre in Bangkok

After sending off the regional leaders and foreign dignitaries, Abhisit returned to Bangkok hastily to reposition his premiership. He was about to lose power through a coup plot, planned on top of the Red Shirt protesters who were creating the turmoil as the condition for the military to intervene.

A day earlier, Thaksin phoned in to declare that his Red Shirt protesters would be launching a people's revolution. He would return home to lead the Red Shirts if the military were to fire the first shot.

Abhisit declared a state of emergency covering Pattaya and Chon Buri. But the Red Shirts would not stay on in Pattaya because they had succeeded in derailing the Asean Summit. They would return to Bangkok where further action would determine the course of the outcome.

On Sunday, since the situation at the Government House, where thousands of the Red Shirt protesters were grouping around the area, was not stable, Abhisit went to the Interior Ministry instead to declare a state of emergency in Bangkok. Again, the Red Shirt protesters ambushed him. This time they hammered his Mercedez sedan, including hurting his secretary Nibhom Phromphand and his driver. Abhisit escaped the scene with a minor injury.

The Red Shirt protesters smelled blood from the prime minister. Again, the security forces were no where to protect the country's chief executive.

Realising that he was in swimming among sharks, Abhisit retreated into a military compound to seek protection -- of course, not under Gen Anupong's protection. The police could not be trusted because they fully backed the Red Shirt protesters.

There Abhisit hastily assembled a special command centre under his direction. Veterans and some retired generals came to his rescue. Gen Anupong's troops and the police could not be trusted and were edged out of the scene. Instead, Abhisit relied on the security forces brought into the capital from upcountry such as Nakhon Rachasima, Kanchanaburi or Lop Buri.

The Red Shirts threatened to surround the Rachadapisek Court where Arimun was kept under custody over criminal charges that he led the Red Shirts to ambush the Asean Summit. Arismun had to be shipped out of the capital.

The political drama was unfolding as Neptune was manifying its dark omen over the City of Angels. It was eclipsing the influence over the Sun, which symbolises lakhana duang muang. The dark force of Neptune was with Thaksin.

The battle would be decided on April 13 -- the Songkran Day when Bangkok would be turned into a capital of inferno.

READ MORE---> Where is Abhisit?...

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

The Red Shirts caved in

by Thanong , Reader : 1817 , 09:44:48

HAPPY SONGKRAN DAY

12:45:

Finally, before noon Veera Musikapong, later Natthawut Saikua and other key leaders of the Red Shirts gave up. They realised that it would be a futile exercise to continue the fight because their boss, Thaksin Shinawatra, is finished. They were unplugged.

Yes, Thaksin is finished.

It will be difficult for him to travel about because most countries would not want to welcome him now after witnessing the riots and espionage activities in Bangkok instigated by his Red Shirt supporters. Thaksin was caught making white and blant lies on CNN and BBC, feeding false information to the global audience that his Red Shirt supporters were fighting for democracy when in fact they were burning Bangkok with espionage tactics.

Thaksin is finished because he has bet all of his political fortune on April 13, the dark day of Neptune. He played out his winner's take all trump card. He set fires throughout Bangkok on the day that Neptune overshadowed the Sun to manifying its bad omens on Bangkok. He had the big milatary and police bosses on his side, including some politicians in the government wing. He did not forget to move his family out of Thailand a few days before Operation Songkran Inferno. Khunying Orr is now shopping in Dubai, still having plenty of money to spend.

Thaksin thought he could hold Thailand as his hostage by his remote control as he bargained for his return, his amnesty and his Bt76 billion assets. He thought that a royal petition would come down in his favour because he had Thailand in his palm.

But his stragtegy backfired. Thaksin failed to get the critical mass support. On the contrary, the residents of Bangkok staged an uprising against his Red Shirt supporters, who were burning Bangkok while Thaksin was acting Nero-like with his karaoke machine.

This was the critical factor. If the people -- the real people and not the people Thaksin claims he represents -- rise against the Red Shirt movement, then Thaksin can only go under. Thaksin thought that the burning of Bangkok would reach a critical level so that the country would fail into lawlessness and the military would step in to intervene in his favour.

It did not work.

The whole world knows that it has been duped by Thaksin all along. Many Thais also are disillusioned by Thaksin's ability to destroy the nation only to exchange for his return to power.

Now all the Red Shirt leaders will be going to jail, facing treason charges. If you plant a gas-tank trucks and plan to set it ablaze, you are committing an act of terrorism or espionage against the state. It is not too difficult to trace all the way as to who ordered the trucks out onto the streets.

Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has emerged as a strong leader now. His leadership has been transformed overnight, from a lameduck PM forced to cancel the Asean Summit in Pattaya into a leader who could defuse the political crisis in the most subtle way. There has been no losses of life at all from the authorities' crackdown against the Red Shirts. Only two persons have been pronounced dead by the shooting of the Red Shirts.

Abhisit has prevailed because he managed to bounce out of the corner as the military, the police, the security people and his own political partners had tried to frame him. We have no evidence to substantiate the doubts that these top people formed a link with Thaksin.

But you don't see the face of Gen Anupong Paochinda nor that of Pol Chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan during the Red Shirt's ambush of the Asean Summit. The security people were not doing their duty at all. They stood idle while the Red Shirts succeeded in ruining the Asean Summit. So far they have not come out to show any responsibility for failing to provide security to the Summit and the regional leaders as well as Thailand's guests.

Abhisit is known to have sought advice from a special unit, set up in haste under his command. As Thaksin played out his cards one by one, the advisors countered each effectively until Thaksin lost all of his bet.

At this hour, with the State of Emergency power rested in his hand, Abhisit -- not the army chief -- is the most powerful person in Thailand. He must use this occasion of his rising popularity in curbing the Red Shirts to deal with the failure of the Thai security apparatus, which has been undermining the national interest and including the government's stability.

We expect to see a reshuffle soon of the top security and peace keeping personnel.

If Abhisit resorts to his timid Oxford graduate role, he would miss out an opportunity to frame his leadership going forward. Now is the time to do it.

######################################



10:50 AM: The Red Shirts have caved in. Veera Musikapong, one of the leaders of the Red Shirt protesters, has announced that the protesters will disperse.

But he said the Red Shirts would rely on other forum, such as international forum, to make its protest heard.

Confusions are going on inside the Red Shirt camp because some do not want to give in.

The Red Shirts have burnt a public bus in front of Baan Pitsanulok, the official residence of the prime minister.

#################################

10:45 am: The authorities are now communicating through a loudspeaker with the Red Shirt protesters at the Government House. Transport has been prepared for any protesters wishing to go home.

So far there has been no reaction from the protesters.

9:30 AM:

About an hour ago, the military and police forces started to close seven key traffic points leading to the Government House. The Red Shirt protesters will be dealt with softly, moderately and decisively in a progressive manner.

Some 450 officers have been seeing getting ready at the Yomaraj area. Other traffic points include the Chulachomklao Military Academy, the Bangkok Metropolitan Police, the Royal Plaza, where the security forces are standing by.

The security forces are equipped with batons, shields, tear gas, and armoured vehicles.

The Red Shirt protesters will be given a chance to disperse or go home. It is not known whether they are allowed to leave the Government House by their Red Shirt guards.

We shall see their mettle.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva won't commit the same mistake as Samak Sundaravej or Somchai Wongsawat, who allowed the Yellow Shirt protesters to hang on until they created complicated political problems. If the political problems become complicated, the military will automatically have a more bargaining power over the government.

Abhisit is now being advised by veterans or retired generals, who have experience in dealing with the protesters during the course of Thailand's political crises. The new generation of commanders has little knowledge or experience in dealing with the mob of this kind.

Soon all the traffics leading to the Government House would be sealed off. Security forces are stationing inside the Government House to prevent the Red Shirt protesters from breaking into the compound.

You may get out of the Government House, but you can't get in.

Sansern Kaewkamnerd, the army spokesman, has just come out to assure the public that the military won't use harsh measures to deal with the Red Shirt protesters. The military would use carrots and sticks.

There are now only 2,000 Red Shirt protesters at the Government House area.

The Red Shirt protesters ravaged the capital and blocked 15 traffic points around Bangkok on Songkran Day. The security forces have now cleared all the traffic points and brought the situation under control.

We don't know what's going on inside the Red Shirt camp. They have kicked out media reporters from the Government House area, accusing them of presenting distorted news and information about the Red Shirt activity.

Besides, the authorities have also cut off the satellite signal of DTV by taking over the Thaicom station. We are deprived from following the Red Shirt activities from DTV.

So what are the security forces going to do next?

The security forces will be negotiating with the Red Shirt leaders by telling them to disperse. If this tactic does not work, water trucks will be brought in to spray the protesters with water. The next step will see the use of tear gas.

But the timing should not be too quick. Time is more on the government's side. The Red Shirt protesters no longer have any legitimate claim of democratic rights after they ravaged the capital with espionage tactics on Songkran Day. Time is not on their side.

Public sympathy with the Red Shirt protesters has dropped. Many Bangkok residents have also stood up against the Red Shirt protesters for creating riots throughout the capital and spoiling their Songkran Festival.

If the security forces only seal off the Red Shirt protesters and cut off their water or food supply for a day or two, the protesters would not be able to tolerate for long. Not all Red Shirt protesters are militants or have the stamina to withstand the heat and pressure or psychological warfare from the security force.

The protesters will be surrounded until they are fatigue and have no strength to fight back.

Last night Red Shirt protesters rode on a motorcycle to shoot at the military at Hua Chang Bridge. One soldier is now being hospitalised in serious condition. A motorist from pick-up truck also fired at the military at the Chai Building area.

This guerilla tactic remains the only option now. A huge regrouping of the Red Shirt is becoming a remote possibility as the condition for creating a military coup or for a political bargain for Thaksin Shinawatra has severely weakened.

As I have said earlier, Thaksin's strategy has backfired.

READ MORE---> The Red Shirts caved in...

Thai Round One goes to the government, sort of

By Nophakhun Limsamarnphun,
Tulsathit Taptim


A long holiday break may be cited as a key factor, but exactly why the red-shirt campaign seems to be losing monentum fast may have to do with the protesters and their leaders having gone into overdrive too soon.

Their time is too short and their goal too high, if not ambiguous. It took the People's Alliance for Democracy months to accomplish relatively easier goals, even with direct or indirect help from the military and the courts. But just a few days into its campaign, the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship went for broke, despite the fact that one of its key demands had to do with an institution close to the monarchy.

"They are pushing for a much more difficult goal with much less time," said PAD leader Suriyasai Katasila. The other DAAD goal is to force the resignation of the government or the dissolution of the House. This is similar to what the PAD tried to achieve in its months-long, sometimes turbulent stand-off with two pro-Thaksin administrations.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, in his TV address to the nation on Thursday evening, admitted that about 100,000 people had attended the DAAD campaign at its peak on Wednesday. But he claimed the numbers had dwindled "by 70 per cent" on Thursday.

Whether or not the numerical decline had to do with some controversial activities is uncertain, but protest leaders on Thursday evening repeatedly declared allegiance to the monarchy and asked demonstrators to watch out for infiltrators who could sow dissent by acts offensive to the highest institution.

Despite hard efforts to differentiate between the monarchy and the Privy Council, the DAAD must have realised that to many Thais the line between the two institutions is very thin indeed. And it didn't help the DAAD that the big message splashed across its main stage at the Government House rally site screamed: "Mandarins get out!" ("Ammart awk pai!").

The gathering at Victory Monument, while not as damaging as the PAD's siege of Suvarnabhumi Airport, proved to be very unpopular. Public outcry was such that in his Thursday address to the red-shirt protesters, Thaksin Shinawatra tried to distance the whole movement from the turmoil. The taxi-drivers who parked their vehicles to block traffic in the area, he said, were only trying to help and acting on their own.

The red-shirt demonstrators occupying Victory Monument were retreating yesterday evening to the Government House rally site. Many taxi-drivers were said to be heading to Pattaya, underlining a shift in the DAAD's immediate targets.

The summit between Asean leaders and their dialogue partners will now have added significance. It could become another forum for Abhisit to accumulate international charisma, or the DAAD could seize the opportunity to embarrass him. Thursday's demonstration at the Royal Cliff Beach Resort was lacklustre to say the least, and, having retreated from the hotel to a nearby mega-store, the DAAD protesters will have their last chance today to spoil Abhisit's international party.

The prime minister was another reason why the red-shirt campaign couldn't quite explode into something big enough to force an upheaval. His calm and eloquent response to Thursday's turmoil and provocation was the last thing the DAAD needed. So far, the government has managed to contain the damage, and round one seems to be ending with a slight points advantage to the administration.

NATION Multimedia

READ MORE---> Thai Round One goes to the government, sort of...

Thai Round Two: Everyone Loses

By Tulsathit Taptim

Even though Thaksin Shinawatra may be laughing, there is no winner after the Pattaya infamy

Pattaya will lose billions of baht. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has lost his face, and his job is under greater threat. To other Thais, Songkran has been pretty much spoiled. Thailand's image as a whole has taken a new hit. Economically struggling Asean has to defer discussing some crucial plans. The red-shirted movement, while having achieved a key objective of preventing the Asean summit with dialogue partners, can't be content with the glaring truth that, like its rival People's Alliance for Democracy, it has become its own worst enemy.

And Thaksin Shinawatra will only get brief satisfaction from the turmoil in Pattaya that led to the cancellation of the summit and declaration of state of emergency which leaves everything hanging in the balance. He will be cheering a "triumph" of his supporters in the next address through video link, but deep down he must know that he is not fighting to win, that to get even is the best he can get. He has been way past of the point of no-return, and what happened in Pattaya on Saturday only serves to lengthen the distance between the man and his motherland.

The biggest loss, however, belongs to us, no matter what colours of the shirts we are wearing. The political divide was not about to be bridged any time soon, but the Pattaya incident has further dimmed the fragile hope. We had wanted things to improve, but now we would be glad if they don't get any worse.

It's been an-eye-for-an-eye showdown. You can seize Government House, so we can block city traffic. You can take over the airport, so we can torpedo an international summit. You fight for democracy that rejects corrupt polticians, we can fight for democracy that respects the voices of the poor.

A common sense of national values has been a long-time victim, who was beaten to near death on Saturday. The nation has lost its way for some time, and the Pattaya infamy ensures there will remain no light at the end of the tunnel in the foreseeable future. The vunerable national harmony has been dealt a new blow, and the threat to nationhood has never looked more real.

Those involved in the years-long power struggle have done their best to make sure that politics affects everyone's life. Too bad the general Thais have only been feeling the negative effects of a war that those responsible insisted was for a greater good. We have come to learn that perhaps people go into war not because they are different. Maybe what has been happening was caused by the fact that we are all too much alike.

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READ MORE---> Thai Round Two: Everyone Loses...

Thai Round Three: Nation on the Brink

By Tulsathit Taptim

The political showdown has reached the point where everyone can only pray and nobody dares to predict the outcome.

Thaksin Shinawatra says he wants to "conclude" it during, if not before, Songkran. Abhisit Vejjajiva says everything will return to normal after Songkran. What will this dangerous common ground of the two men who have become arch-rivals lead us to is anyone's guess.

One day after the whole of Thailand is the ultimate loser, the nation is staring at one of the most monumentous political showdowns in modern history. And interestingly, both warring parties are up against the ropes. Thaksin and the red-shirted movement have gambled with everything they had, alienating themselves from non-partisan Thais with the kind of aggession that has put the already weak Thai economy in jeopardy and further threatened frabics of nationhood. Abhisit, on the other hand, has cornered himself with the Mr Nice Guy approach and the only way to shore up his wavering legitimacy is to act tough.

Thaksin has nothing to lose, albeit except Bt76 billion which may be the final answer to the question "Why?". Abhisit has everything to lose and some values to protect.

The prime minister was said to have lashed out at the police, military and government kingmaker Suthep Thaugsuban after the Pattaya debacle which is costing much more than just his face. The turmoil that caused the cancellation of the Asean summit with dialogue partners, however, has eaten into public sympathy for the red shirts as much as Abhisit's leadership.

Declaration of state of emergency in Bangkok and its suburbs was Abhisit's only choice. If it wasn't his last throw of the dice, it was something very close. A failed state of emergency like the one declared by the ill-fated government of Samak Sundaravej last year could doom Abhisit's reign. But a bloodshed as a result of the state of emergency could also generate political repercussions that are as bad, if not worse.

And Abhisit's state of emergency will be enforced against a backdrop of doubtful loyalty from the police and, to a lesser extent, the military. Conspiracy theorists are seeing an increasingly isolated prime minister after what should have been a high-alert security routine in Pattaya provided a non-existent barricade allowing protesters to sleepwalk to the summit hotel in great numbers. Other analysts, however, simply view the outbreak of red-shirted aggression as a result of a too-cautious approach of authorities too fearful of things getting out of control.

It will become evident very soon whether Abhisit is acting tough when it's too late. If they had failed in Pattaya on Saturday, the red-shirted protesters could have been tamed or calm today. But now that they have been buoyed by the Pattaya "victory", the movement will naturally be more difficult to contain.

One thing remains unchanged for Thaksin. A crumbled government, or a House dissolution, or a large-scale bloody riot, or even a coup, will not be enough to bring him home, let alone restore him politically. This is a war just for the man to get even, or at best some leverage to push for return of the frozen Bt76 billion.

So, it's fast becoming a war between enemies whose only way to go is forward. One side is very desperate, while the other has been jolted into a near panic mode. This is the kind of situation where no pundit dares predicting the immediate result, let alone a long-term one.

READ MORE---> Thai Round Three: Nation on the Brink...

Thai Round Four: Reds in Retreat

By Tulsathit Taptim

The red-shirted movement and government crackdown have put Thailand on a crucial juncture. How will the country emerge from the Black Songkran?


The red shirts are retreating politically as much as logistically and strategically. It has been a day when the movement risks shrinking back to its very core. Public sympathy, which has been on a decline since the collapse of the Asean summit, is apparently at its lowest on Monday, underlined by a brief but telling scene at the Din Daeng flat community. Fearful and angry following the protesters' threat to blow up a hijacked gas truck to counter troops' advance, the flat residents sided with the security forces and formed a human shield to protect the soldiers.

Burnt buses, gunshots, thick smoke in many spots and shouts of abuses make it Bangkok's blackest Songkran ever. But resentment against the red shirted protesters was not caused by the forced absence of festivity. It is the traffic turmoil, the fear and anxiety, intimidation of press members, and the general feelings that the protesters have gone too far that is chipping away at their credibility and respectability.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, under siege politically, may have problems with his command and clout. But he has never wavered when it comes to the right principles which have been reflected throughout the first day of the crackdown. Reports coming in from various scenes confirm the government's insistence that force has been used discreetly. Given the magnitude of the protesters' aggression, things could have become much worse than October 7 last year, when several yellow-shirted protesters were killed and many lost their limbs in a clash with security forces. As it turned out, there has been less violence, although what the troops' relative leniency will lead to in the next hours remains to be seen.

If anything, the fact that the crackdown operations so far seem to still be going Abhisit's way underscores his statement on Sunday night that his government, police and the military remained united. After all, there are so many things rebellious police or soldiers can do to turn today's fragile events into something a lot worse.

In an interview with CNN, red-shirted leader and fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra claimed force was being used indiscriminately against innocent people. It will be his words against Abhisit's now. One thing is rather certain, if Thaksin has got the ears of the international media, what the local Thai media have seen so far does not back up the ousted prime minister's claim of rampant state aggression against innocent, unarmed citizens fighting for democracy.

There was one scene Monday evening showing some female red-shirted protesters giving flowers to soldiers, begging them not to push them back further. This might be a one-off, or it may reflect a change in the movement's strategy after being dealt major logistical and political blows in one day.

The tide can still change, as the red-shirted protesters have dispersed into unorganised, virtually rudderless pockets of unruly mobs who have burned dozens of vehicles and kept on provocative activities. It will be up to the troops and their commanders to keep their cool heads. Supreme Commander Songkitti Jakkrabat seemed to mirror Abhisit's principles when he announced that the bottom line of the crackdown operation was "Everyone is Thai". How long that can hold will determine not who wins this showdown, but how Thailand will emerge from this very black Songkran.

NATION Multimedia

READ MORE---> Thai Round Four: Reds in Retreat...

Thai Round Five: Can we make this the last round?

We have fallen as a nation, and getting up together is all we must do
By Tulsathit Taptim

The close call could not have been closer. But having relied on miracles to get back from the brink, Thailand now has to muster every ounce of collective determination and ability to forgive and forget in order to deal with the seemingly indelible scar of the last few days and get forward as a nation. It will be a long road of rehabilitation, if rehabilitation can really begin at all, that is.

It's an irony that, to sympathizers of the red shirted protesters, they came to rally in Bangkok because they felt alienated, and now they have to go back home having alienated themselves through aggression that for some time made everyone fear for a civil war. The government, having politically benefited from the red shirted protesters' self-alienation, now has an ironic job of quickly fixing what must be a deep sense of isolation. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has rightly approached the crisis with "Everyone is a Thai" principle, and now he has to implement that philosophy post-crisis to heal national wounds.

Nobody has been the winner, and the nation as a whole has been down for a nine count. While Abhisit has come through a major challenge and should be commended for his cool-headed response to a series of emergencies, which could have easily degenerated into something much worse, the next challenge is simply bigger. He more or less has won over some neutrals, but unless he seriously reaches out far beyond his political comfort zone, rehabilitation will prove very difficult indeed.

For the red-shirted movemet, it has been a campaign of a frustrated, angry young man who turned to violence when all else failed. Further autopsy is needed to determine if that angry young man was also badly confused. Was he really upset with the Privy Council and honestly convinced that a constitutional monarchy democracy can still drive Thailand but for some manipulative advisers to the King? Did he or did he not love Thaksin Shinawatra? Was he campaigning for the rich fugitive whom he liked as a leader, or was he fighting for real values far beyond that highly-controversial politician?

Whatever the answers, the angry young man may have only been temporarily subdued after making a big blunder. The "victory" declared after the cancellation of the Asean summit in Pattaya was apparently mistaken as a license to up the stakes and run amok. What the angry young man did not realize was that, as he seemingly was chasing his opponent around the ring, he totally lowered his own guards. He forgot the rules of the game and the rest is history.

Will he get even angrier when waking up from the daze? To understand that angry young man is as difficult as making him understand you back. It's Abhisit's duty to find out if a political movement seen as deeply associated with Thaksin Shinawatra in fact possesses some other driving energies that everyone may have overlooked.

As for Thaksin, his calls for HM the King to intervene at the height of the crisis still had the characteristic doubled meanings. The former leader may have been shocked by how fast things were deteriorating and thus probably come back to his senses. Or it could have been just another one of his politically-motivated statements that couldn't be taken too seriously. After all, with the rampaging red shirted protesters looking up to him as the ultimate idol, Thaksin was in a better position than anyone else to calm them down.

Rehabilitation without Thaksin's involvement will be difficult, though still possible. Rehabilitation with Thaksin's sincere participation will make things much easier, though the scenario is far less possible. He has become even more adamant than before that he was a victim of a anti-democracy conspiracy and never admits that he has been a big part, if not root cause, of the Thai crisis.

The wounds will leave a deep scar. Although in terms of casaulties the Black Songkran is less cursed than the October 6 bloodbath, the 1992 May Crisis and last year's October 7 infamy, we all know that this could have easily been the worst of them all. It's simply a close call of the kind that makes people with common senses review their own acts, not others', in its aftermath.

It's our duty to find hope when desperation seems to prevail. We can take heart at the way troops generally handled the situation, and how the majority of the protesters at Government House responded to the setbacks and sacrificed "victory" for common interests. Some good principles have seemed to exist on both sides, and merging them instead of making them clash is the only way forward.

Extremely difficult as it looks, we don't have other choices. Reconcilation has been a fashionable word for too long, during which both sides of the divide were firmly on their toes ready to pounce on each other. As a result, we have fallen as a nation, and only through realising this can we get up together again.

NATION Multimedia

READ MORE---> Thai Round Five: Can we make this the last round?...

Asean chief welcomes end of Bangkok rally

(Nation Multimedia) - Asean Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan said Tuesday that he welcomed the end of the anti-government protest in Bangkok on Tuesday.

"I hoped and prayed for normalcy to return to Thailand quickly, so that the Thai people can celebrate Songkran peacefully this week in the tradition of family reunion, friendship, and forgiveness," he said in a statement.

The red shirted protesters abruptly ended their rally on Tuesday. Their leaders claimed that the pull-back was not the defeat of the movement and they would resume the protest after Songkran Day.

He also referred to the collapse of Asean Summit plus dialogue partner countries in Pattaya last week. During the period, the red shirts led by Arisamun Pongruengrong stormed into meeting building of the Summit, forcing the Thai government to cancel the meeting.

"I am grateful to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva of Thailand and the Thai Government for the safe evacuation of the Leaders of Asean member States and their Dialogue Partners from Pattaya following the cancellation of the "Related Summits" on 11-12 April 2009."

Those affected leaders, as well as their ministers and senior officials, agreed with the decision Surin said, adding they also sympathized with Abhisit for trying to avoid violence and bloodshed at all costs.

Surin also put on record the followings;

- What had happened in Pattaya and Bangkok will not erode the credibility and dignity of Thailand's chairmanship of Asean. On the contrary, the restrained government responses showed the integrity of the Thai Government in restoring law and order with admirable respect for life, safety, and constitutional rights of all.

- The cancellation in Pattaya was a serious setback to Asean, an irrevocable loss of great opportunity. But it will not weaken Asean. Neither will it discourage Asean.- The other Asean Leaders and their Dialogue Partners were actually in Pattaya (except the Prime Minister of Australia who was on his way, and the Prime Minister of India who could not attend); they were there, ready to meet and cooperate, with us in Asean , even when many protesters were trying to block traffic and create commotion.

- The centrality of Asean has not been questioned. In fact, many Asean Leaders and their Dialogue Partners have expressed support for Asean to re-schedule the "Related Summits" as soon as possible.

He said he is now in Bali, preparing to attend the meeting of the Third Bali Regional Ministerial Conference. "I will take advantage of the presence of several Asean ministers and those of Dialogue Partners and their senior officials to begin a round of consultations on the next steps to regain momentum for Asean."

READ MORE---> Asean chief welcomes end of Bangkok rally...

Abhisit is regaining an upper hand



and Thaksin is ready to go on with his lies
he just wants to create a people's revolution for his personal benefit



PHOTOS SPEAK LOUDER THEIR COMMENTS
Check Nation Multimedia's page, scroll down to see the gallery,
see the bared handed in those photos

READ THANONG ANALYSIS below

Two people died Monday during a fight between anti-government protesters and Bangkok residents, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in a televised address.

Earlier, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose supporters have engaged in escalating clashes with Thai police, reiterated Monday that he is willing to return to his country but would not say when.

"Well, you know I am ready to go when the time is right," Thaksin told CNN. "But now, I like to see peaceful protests by the demonstrators. Actually, you know, they are all innocent people. They come with bare hands; they are asking for true democracy and justice. But they got back undemocratic ways with a lot of brutal suppression."

More...

Abhisit is regaining an upper hand

Posted by Thanong , Reader : 2323 , 12:01:06

April 13, 2009

By Thanong Khanthong

23:00 hours

Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has just appeared on national TV. Flanked by Suthep Thuagsuban, the deputy prime minister in charge of security affairs, and other top security officials of the country, he declared that the turmoil all day in Bangkok has been brought under control since the evening.

He called for the Red Shirt protesters, who are now rallying in the area around the Government House, to return home as the authorities will stand by to help them.

Abhisit did not say what the government would do next against the remaining Red Shirt protesters at the Government House. But we can expect that the security forces would be zeroing into them soon to disperse the rally at the Government House.

Throughout the day, there has not been any loss of life from the security forces' cracking down on the Red Shirt protesters, who ravaged the capital through different locations, particularly at the Din Daeng intersection. There are scores of people getting injured.

The loss of lives only took place in the evening after the Red Shirt protesters reportedly shot at two persons.

22:00 hours:

Red Shirt protesters have failed to garner critical mass support because they rely on urban terrorist tactic to plunder Bangkok. Many Bangkok residents have come out today to lash out at and attack the Red Shirt protesters.

Two people are reported to have been shot dead by the Red Shirt protesters, one at Nang Leng and the other at Wat Sommanas.

So where is Thaksin Shinawatra now? He is believed to be commanding the raid of Bangkok from Koh Kong. If the situation is ripe, he will make his way to Bangkok. But will he?

The Red Shirt protesters are now retreating to the area surrounding the Government House. They are fortifying their position from there.

The security forces are expected to quash the Red Shirt protesters tonight or tomorrow.

The government might find it necessary to declare curfew to deter movements of Red Shirt protesters and prevent them from reinforcing additional support.

Don't blink your eyes.

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20:00 hours:

On Sunday, I wrote that the stars hovering over the City of Angels were radiating exceptional heat. There could be violence starting Sunday evening. But as it turned out, the violence started exactly on Songkran Day.

My astrologer is almost right on target. To sum it up again, my amateur astrologer has told me that duang muang (the City's star) is in trouble, with the stars aligned in a complicated position. When King Yodfa founded Bangkok in 1782, the lakhana duang muang (the character of the City of Angels) was represented by the sun, which exemplified strength, boldness and grandeur.

Lakhana Duang Muang of Bangkok as marked by ancient Thai astrological codification.

_______________________________

The sun is being overshadowed by neptune at the lakhana duang muang, which exists in spiritual form. This means that bad omen and events would be hovering over the capital.

Neptune is now hovering above lakhana duang muang, magnifying its influence over events in Thailand. "We might have a very serious incident this evening and it will deterioriate further," my astrologer said on Sunday.

But beginning Tuesday of April 14, 2009, Neptune will gradually move out of Lakhana Duang Muang to the right side of the Sun. This means that the bad omen or bad incidents against Bangkok will subside. The situation will improve.

Thaksin Shinawatra launched his broadside attack against the capital by also consulting the stars above the sky. He had his Red Shirt protesters ravaging Bangkok at a time when his duang or fortune hit the peak. His duang coincides with Neptune movement against the Sun or Lakhana Duang Muang of the City of Angels.

We are witnessing a fight in both the sky and on the earth.

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Analysis

18:30 hours


Thaksin Shinawatra's urban terrorist tactic to create widespread riots in Bangkok and pave the way for his return is not working, though pockets of violence is now spreading around the capital.

His strategy is simple. After torpedoing the Asean Summit in Pattaya, the Red Shirt anti-government protesters would be staging urban-style terrorism around the key points in Bangkok so that Abhisit would be forced to declare a State of Emergency. Then the military must be brought in to quash the Red Shirt protesters. While the military suppress the Red Shirt protesters, there could be bloodshed. The situation would spill out of control to create an anarchy. Finally, Thaksin's supporters would be petitioning His Majesty the King for a royal intervention or a reconciliation to end the crisis.

In this plan, Thaksin is seeking to hold Thailand as his hostage as he bargains for his amnesty. When worst comes to worst, a military coup would be launched to bring down Abhisit government.

But Thaksin's game plan is not working. First, the Red Shirt protesters' urban terrorism tactics have gone out of control to create a civil war inside the capital. Second, they have failed to mobilise enough critical mass support. Third, the Thai public, appalled by the violence and the Red Shirt clashes against the security forces, do not support the Red Shirt.

Yet the most important factor is that Prime Minsiter Abhisit Vejjajiva has managed to consolidate his power. He is now being advised by a specially assembled unit consisting of old veterans and retired generals.

Gen Anupong Paochina, the army chief, Gen Prawit Wongsuwan, and Police Chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan have been left in the cold. They were conspicuously absent during the Red Shirts' ambush of the Asean Summit venue in Pattaya. There the police and security forces turned a blind eye to the Red Shirt protesters' ambushing the Royal Cliff Beach Resort and Hotel, the venue of the Asean Summit.

Gen Anupong wore a tense face when he appeared on TV last night with Abhisit, who was trying to assure the Thai public that he would be able to bring the crisis situation under control. Gen Anupong is believed to have been kept out of any top-level decisions to manage the crisis in Bangkok.

The situation in Bangkok was tense all day as many department stores were closed and many roads were blocked. The Red Shirt protesters employed the urban terrorist tactic to ravage the capital in different locations, ranging from Din Daeng, Ayutthaya Road, Victory Monument, Phan-fa, Yomaraj, the Royal Plaza. They used public buses to block the streets, installed three gas-tank trucks at Din Daeng, Ayutthaya Road and Soi Rangnam near Victory Monument and threw petro bombs, sticks and bricks at the security.

The Red Shirt's tactic is similar to that employed by the Krathingdaeng Group, which in the October 1979 crisis played a catalyst role in suppressing students in Thammasat University. An ex-general by the abbreviated name of P.P. was believed to be the mastermind behind this terrorist tactic.

As for the three gas-tank trucks, authorities identified them as coming from Siam Gas Plc, of which Gen Chaiyasith Shinawatra is serving as chairman. Gen Chaiyasith, a cousin of Thaksin, denied that he had nothing to do with the gas-tank trucks.

Suchon Chaleekrua, the former Senate speaker, led a group of Thaksin's supporters including Pol Gen Salang Bunnag, to submit a petition to His Majesty the King. The language of the petition was vague, requesting the King to make a royal intervention to end the crisis. Gen Somjate Boomthanom, a former member of the 2006 coup, came out to question the motif behind the royal petition because Suchon and other petitioners all had close ties with Thaksin.

Thaksin has just appeared on CNN, blaming the security forces for shooting his Red Shirt supporters. He did not mention at all how the Red Shirt protesters had been ravaging the capital throughout the day by burning public buses and destroying public properties.

Military personnel from Lop Buri, Prachinburi and Nakhon Rachasima have been brought into the capital to reinforce the security forces. The authorities would be using both soft and harsh measures to disperse the Red Shirt protesters, who have used the surrounding areas of the Government House as their headquarters.

Abhisit is now determined to quash the Red Shirt protesters rather than allowing them to prolong the crisis further.

A curfew may be announced this evening to allow the security forces to quash the Red Shirt protesters gathering around the Government House.

######################################

12:00 hours: HAPPY SONGKRAN DAY


Abhisit Vejjajiva, the prime minister, has managed to reposition himself by consolidating his power amid the growing political crisis. Before noon, he appeared on national TV to assert to the Thai public that he was now in charge. All the key military top brass were accompanying him on TV, wearing a grim look on their faces.

The dark plot against Abhisit has failed, at least for now.

Last night there was flurrying of activities among the military top brass. The military clique, which supports ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra or which would like to exploit the political crisis arising from the confrontation between the Red Shirt protesters and the Abhisit government, was subdued. They could not move.

A military coup could be staged, but it would be virtually impossible to get a Royal endorsement.

As prime minister, Abhisit now enjoys the utmost power in the land. The announcement of the State of Emergency rests all the power in his hand. If the situation fails to improve, Abhisit can continue to keep the State of Emergency for six months or the full year.

Abhisit is digesting the mistakes of both Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, who as prime ministers, failed to use the power of the premiership during their face-off with the military and the Yellow Shirt protesters last year.

We are now seeing a more confident Abhisit, compared to a wobbling prime minister over the past few days when the Red Shirt protesters succeeded in torpedoing the Asean Summit in Pattaya.

The dark plot is designed to bring down Abhisit. The Red Shirt protesters, commanded by Thaksin from the overseas, are acting as a catalyst. The protesters, fortified themselves at the Government House, would be conducting widespread espionage around the capital to justify a military intervention.

Once the military stage a coup, Thaksin would be making a return to join the Red Shirt protesters. Thaksin has been calling for a people's revolution, exactly a replay of the Yellow Shirt's plot but for a completely different purpose.

Only through a military coup would it be possible for Thaksin to make a comeback. But we are witnessing an intriguing situation because it is never certain whether the military would stage a coup on behalf of Thaksin or whether they would exploit the whole crisis to launch a coup for their own benefits.

Earlier, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has assured the nation that there is no disharmony within the government as well as key agencies responsible for enforcing law and order.

In a late-night television address, Abhisit was flanked by all key government, military and police leaders, a setting apparently intended to stamp out persistent speculation that he was losing support of top police and military officers.

He said the rumours were intended to weaken the government which has been trying to restore law and order through peaceful means.

"There have been a lot of rumours and I would like the Thai media to report on the truth to the Thai public," he said.

Abhisit must have realised about the dark plot by now -- who are his enemies or who are his friends. We cannot undersestimate the power of a Thai premiership, entrusted to exerice the State of Emergency. Abhisit vows to bring law and order back to the capital.

The scene in Bangkok now is tumultuous, particularly at the Rachaprarob area leading to Pratunam where a contingent of military is facing off the Red Shirt protesters. There has not been any report of fatal injuries.

Crackdown at dawn

At least 77 were injured as troops, firing tear gas and shots into the air, moved in to retake the Din Daeng intersection near Victory Monument from protesters.


Troops, firing shots into the air, have apparently retaken control of the Din Daeng intersection from red-shirted protesters, according to TV news reports. There were reportedly some injuries but no immediate reports of death.

At least 77 people suffered minor injuries, many from tear gas, according to hospital reports. About five persons were seriously injured. The red-shirted movement claimed "several" of its members suffered gunshot wounds, and condemned the authorities' use of live bullets in the crackdown.

TV news footage showed soldiers firing shots into the air. Tear gas was also fired, TV reporters at the scene said. A few hundred troops were involved in the operation.

At around 7.20 am, the government announced it was in control of the situation at Din Daeng.

The clash took place around 4 am and left about 50 soldiers and protesters injured, it was reported. Gunshots were still heard after 5 am, but not as intensely as when the crackdown began.

One TV reporter quoted "runaway" protesters as saying that there might have been some deaths. The government reported no death.

The troops were pushing from the Din Daeng intersection toward the Victory Monument. Protesters were scattered and retreated from the intersection to the moment. It appeared that the troops were in almost complete control of the Din Daeng intersection after 6 am.

Col Sansern Kaewkamnerd, Army spokesman, said 300 protesters were in the area when security forces including soldiers and police moved in. He said the troops first tried to negotiate with the protesters, who were allegedly armed with molotov cocktails and tear gas themselves.

He said the talks broke down after some protesters tried to ram buses against the troops.

"The troops had to fire into the air. I repeat. They fired into the air and took action against the protesters," he said.

13:00 Hours:

Further crackdown this evening


It is clear that Abhisit would not tolerate a prolonged confrontation against the Red Shirt anti-government protesters. Allowing the turmoil to spread throughout Bangkok could make the situation go out of control.

The situation is now bordering on a civil war. The Red Shirt leaders at the Government House have expelled reporters from the area as they map out a defensive strategy to hold on to their position.

Military personnel from the provinces are being shipped into the capital to take on the Red Shirt protesters at the Government House. Starting this evening, we can expect to see the military move into the Government House area to disperse the crowd. The key Red Shirt leaders could be nabbed.

So between now and the next one or two days, we might see some violent clashes if the Red Shirt protesters insist on fighting back and refusing to disperse.

Meanwhile, there has been a plea for the Abhisit government to exercise restraint, patience and diplomacy to deal with the Red Shirt protesters. The Association of Thai Journalists has called on the government to seek a truce with the Red Shirt leaders. The Pheu Thai MPs, who support the Red Shirt rally, should use Parliament as a forum to defuse the crisis.

#######################

13.35 hours:

Official Statement from the Government House


T oday (13 April 2009) at 7.45 hrs, Dr. Panitan Wattanayagorn, Deputy Secretary-General to the Prime Minister and acting Government Spokesperson and Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd, Spokesman of the Royal Thai Army gave a televised briefing on the newly announced Prime Minister’s order to establish a Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (CRES).

Dr. Panitan said that following the declaration by the Prime Minister yesterday of the state of emergency in Bangkok Metropolitan area and several vicinities in five provinces, the Prime Minister has ordered the establishment of the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation (order No. 98/2552). Additionally the Prime Minister also ordered the prohibition of road blockades to enable the normal flow of traffics – Announcement following Section 11(6) of the Emergency Decree on the Public Administration in Emergency Situations B.E. 2548 (2005).

Early this morning, around 4 am, after the announcement of the use of the order to prohibit road blockades, the officers at Din Daeng junction encountered a group of protestors who attempted to block the roads by using a bus. The officers then informed the protestors present in that area of the announcement of anti-road blockade order and negotiated with the protestors to stop the blockade. However, the protestors did not listen to the officials and drove the bus into the crowd of officers. The officers then fired a warning shot into the air to warn the protestors, followed by firing tear gas and took control of the situation. The action taken by officers started with the basic measures and thereafter progressively stepped up to more intense ones. In the clash that took place, a few people were injured while a few other people were detained and were taken to a safe place.

Dr. Panitan reiterated that in dispersing the groups of protestors, the Government has taken action in a transparent manner and taken due consideration of the safety of the people. He also asked the general public to place their trust in the Government in handling of the situation and cooperate with the Government by informing the newly established centre of any information that might be useful. The Government ensures that whatever action it takes will be in accordance with the law and the democratic principles. And throughout today, there will be periodic briefings by several high-level officials involved in the resolution of the emergency situation.

Following the briefing by Dr. Panitan, Colonel Sansern added that the clash began by the protestors firing tear gas at a crowd of officers, thereafter drove the bus that was used as a blockade directly into them. In an attempt to control the situation, the officers fired a gunshot up into the air - not directly at the protestors – to warn the protestors and encourage them to move away from the scene. Then, the officers had to use tear gas, sticks and shields in order to protect themselves.
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