Politicians need to keep quiet for sake of peace in South

By: ACHARA ASHAYAGACHAT

(Bangkok Post - The government's proposed "politics guiding military" strategy in dealing with the southern insurgency is being called into question.

Critics say the strategy's meaning should be clearly defined to ensure a proper understanding by agencies before its implementation.

They said the slogan could be exploited by the government and politicians to win public backing for the strategy without practical action. If a huge budget is involved, the military would also stand to benefit in a big way.

The "politics guiding military" policy may have tasted success in fighting communism in the 1980s but the current "war" in the South is different.

Without addressing the southerners' basic human rights and, more importantly, recognising their aspirations, sustainable peace in the region should not be expected.

However, if the law is not strictly enforced in the three southernmost border provinces, the situation is not going to improve either.

So we need the military presence to remain strong in the region and the politicians to stay quiet as they have not made any positive contribution to the region for several years. Where the rule of law cannot prevail, security authorities must deal seriously with the insurgents to restore peace and stability.

But those in charge of security should not encourage a heavy-handed approach.

"As long as the southerners have trust in the judicial system, they will back the state. But if they are not certain that justice could be delivered, they will become allies of the insurgents," said a judge with experience in the southern provinces.

Army chief Anupong Paojinda has made it clear the "politics guiding military" policy was not being introduced to negotiate with the insurgents.

However, some scholars have advised agencies that they should explore other ideas that could help complete the jigsaw puzzle, including talks with groups sympathising with the militants.

Certainly, who to talk to is the key question for those advocating talking.

Officers with different hats now seem to agree on one basic fact: That unless the root cause of the problem is recognised, the government cannot easily address the anti-Siam attitudes and separatism.

But where to start? The local people don't seem to have much faith in the Democrat Party, but do believe in Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who once said the area should be made a special administration zone.

Last week, Malaysia's Task Force 2010 chief, Datuk Wan Abu Bakar Omar, suggested that the Organisation of Islamic Conference might be the best body if Thailand was looking for external help to quell the insurgency.

READ MORE---> Politicians need to keep quiet for sake of peace in South...

North Korea Can Allay Fear at Regional Forum

By MIN LWIN
The Irrawaddy News

North Korea should calm regional fears by explaining its relations with Burma at the 16th Asean Regional Forum (ARF) to be held in Phuket, Thailand, July16-23.

An editorial in the Bangkok Post, Monday, stated ARF would be the perfect forum for North Korea to explain its recent actions and lay out its future plans.

“An unauthorized nuclear project, even without weapons capability, would pose a serious threat to the ecology of Thailand and the region,” the editorial declared.

The editorial said, “The world including Thailand views North Korea as a dangerous country, addicted to frightening threats of nuclear attacks and weapons trafficking on any scale it chooses.”

North Korean has a record of selling arms and military technology to Burma. It is suspected that this may include secretive nuclear technology.

The North Korean cargo ship, Kang Nam, that recently left North Korea for Burma could be carrying weapons.

North Korea’s military support for Burma may be considered a serious issue at the forum, according to analysts.

“ARF is supposed to be a forum for regional security, so we hope that they will consider issues related to comprehensive security as part of an Asean plan of action,” Debbie Stothard, coordinator of the Bangkok-based Alternative Asean Network on Burma said to The Irrawaddy.

“North Korea is definitely a very serious issue,” she added. “ARF hasn’t been taking the situation in Burma seriously, and consequently they don’t have any plan of action.”

“In effect ARF is allowing Burma to become another North Korea, which is a danger to the region,” Stothard said.

By bringing Asian and Western powers together, ARF can provide an important forum for discussing the array of dangers arising from North Korea's illegal weapons trafficking to Burma, according to Burma political analysts.

ARF was founded in 1994 to promote open dialogue on political and security issues and to build trust among its members through dialogue and confidence-building measures.

Twenty seven nations currently participate in ARF. They automatically include Asean member states as well as Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, China, European Union, India, Japan, Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, Mongolia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Russian Federation, Sri Lanka, Timor Leste and the United States.

READ MORE---> North Korea Can Allay Fear at Regional Forum...

Asia’s ‘Axis of Evil’ Flexes Its Muscles

By AUNG ZAW
The Irrawaddy News

Burma’s burning ambition to acquire modern missile technology and to upgrade its conventional weapons is no longer a secret, and if left unchecked, could pose a destabilizing threat to regional stability.

Thailand, its most prominent historical enemy, should be concerned—its military leaders would not like to see a Burma in possession of missiles that could easily lead to a tit-for-tat arms race. Also, of course, there’s the generals’ chronic fear of the West, heightened last year when foreign navy vessels showed up off the Burmese shore in an effort to deliver relief items and water to cyclone victims in the Irrawaddy delta region.

Since then, Burmese leaders have increasingly been looking for a source of medium range missiles, sophisticated anti-aircraft and radar systems to deter imagined external threats.

Gen Thura Shwe Mann, the regime’s No 3 man, made a secret visit to North Korea in November 2008, no doubt with a shopping list for the above items.

Shwe Mann, chief of staff of the army, navy and air force, and the coordinator of Special Operations, made a secret, seven day visit to Pyongyang on November 22, travelling there via Kunming, China.

The 17-member, high-level delegation was given an important sightseeing visit to Pyongyang and Myohyang, where secret tunnels have been built into the mountains to store and shield jet aircraft, missiles, tanks and nuclear and chemical weapons.

Accompanied by air defense chief Lt-Gen Myint Hlaing, Maj-Gen Hla Htay Win, Maj-Gen Khin Aung Myint, Maj-Gen Thein Htay, Maj-Gen Mya Win and senior officials from heavy industries, the delegation was clearly on a mission to cement stronger military ties with the reclusive, hermit state.

On November 27, Shwe Mann and Gen Kim Kyok-sik, chief of general staff, signed a MoU, officially formalizing the military cooperation between Burma and North Korea.

North Korea will reportedly build or supervise the construction of some Burmese military facilities, including tunnels and caves in which missiles, aircraft and even naval ships could be hidden. Burma will also receive expert training for its special forces, air defense training, plus a language exchange program between personnel in the two armed forces.

Burmese army sources in Naypyidaw confirmed to The Irrawaddy that the secret arms-procurement mission covered most of the generals’ wish list.

During his seven-day visit, Shwe Mann, who is presumed to be the heir apparent to take over Burma’s armed forces, visited radar and jamming units in Myohyang, a highly sophisticated anti-aircraft unit, air force units and a computerized command control system in Pyongyang.

The delegation also visited a surface-to-surface (SCUD) missile factory, partially housed in tunnels, on the outskirts of Pyongyang to observe missile production. Since the late 1980s, North Korea has sold hundreds of SCUD-type missiles and SCUD production technology to Iran, Syria and Egypt.

The SCUD-D missile, with a range of 700 kilometers, and SCUD-E missile, with a range of 1,500 kilometers, could easily intimidate Burma’s neighbors, including Thailand. It is believed that Burma already has deployed six radar air defense systems along the Thai-Burmese border.

During the visit, the Burmese were also particularly interested in short-range 107 mm and 240 mm multi-rocket launchers—a multipurpose missile defense system in case of a foreign invasion, analysts said.

Also of great interest was the latest in anti-tank, laser-guided missile technology that can be deployed within an infantry division. Defense analysts say Burma has already purchased short and medium- range missiles from North Korea under a barter deal.

It is not known if regime leaders have already put in an order for SCUD-D or the more powerful SCUD-F missiles, with a range of 3,000 kilometers. To suppress ethic insurgents, the regime doesn’t need such sophisticated weapons, but Burma’s strong interest in missile, radar, AWAC air defense systems, GPS communication jammers and search radar indicates that Naypyidaw’s leaders envision both defensive and offensive capabilities.

Historically, Burma has procured small arms, jet fighters and naval ships from the West, namely the US, Britain and some European countries, including Holland and Switzerland. But after brutally crushing the 1988 democracy uprising, it faced Western sanctions and Burmese leaders desperately looked for new sources of weapons and ammunition to modernize and upgrade its armed forces. Burma has bought jet fighters and naval ships from China but increasingly it’s looked for alternatives because of low quality and poor after-sale service

In the past, Burma purchased a “Pechora” air defense system—a Russian-made, surface-to-air, anti-aircraft system. Analysts say that Russians have provided technical training and language courses to Burmese technicians.

The junta continues to strengthen its military capacity and spends the country’s precious foreign reserves on more and more sophisticated weapons.

When Gen Maung Aye visited Moscow in April 2006, he told Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov that Burma wished to order more Russian-made MiG-29 jet fighters (in addition to the 12 it had already secured), as well as 12 secondhand MI-17 helicopters.

During the Moscow visit, the deputy chief of armed forces also expressed a desire to build a short-range guided missile system in central Burma with assistance from Russia.

Curiously, say analysts, Shwe Mann and his delegation also studied the subway system in the North Korean capital—in theory an underground subway is an effective way to deploy and mobilize troops during a conflict in an urban area.

As early as 2002-3, Burma begun to build underground tunnels and caves to hide and protect aircraft and weapons, as well as to house a central command and control facility.

Foreign analysts note that Burma was humiliated when it lost serious military skirmishes with Thailand in 2001-2002. Thailand employed F-16 jet fighters along its border and successfully disrupted Burma’s communication system between its troops in the front line and its central command.

The generals seem determined to go into the next field of battle with equal if not superior forces.

READ MORE---> Asia’s ‘Axis of Evil’ Flexes Its Muscles...

Mixed Reactions to Obama in Southeast Asia

The Irrawaddy News

Throughout Southeast Asia, observers are busy trying to guess what Barack Obama’s remarkable ascent to the US presidency will mean for the region’s relations with the world’s most powerful nation.

In Indonesia, where Obama spent four years as a boy, the mood is celebratory. Children from his former school will mark his swearing-in by singing in downtown Jakarta, while former classmates of the president-elect plan to gather to watch his inaugural address.

Obama’s mother, Ann Dunham, married Lol Soetoro in Indonesia, where she and her son lived from 1967-72.

The Jakarta Post reported that Obama’s half-sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, who was born and raised in Jakarta but now lives in Hawaii, would be attending the inauguration, as would other members of Obama’s Indonesian family.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono congratulated Obama when he won the election in November, and expressed his hope that the new president’s leadership would help steer the world through the current global economic crisis.

However, other countries in the region are less certain about Obama’s likely impact on the struggling economy, which is the main focus of relations between the US and Southeast Asia.

An editorial in the Bangkok Post, Thailand’s leading English-language daily, was downbeat about the prospects for change, citing critics who warned that “the deepening economic woes and domestic dynamics within [Thailand and the US] will keep the two allies apart and maintain the status quo on pending free trade negotiations.”

Indeed, many fear that the Obama administration will merely follow in the footsteps of its predecessors, who showed little interest in supporting the region’s aspirations. For nearly two decades, the US has been unhappy with the notion of the region coming together, particularly when it relied on the anti-West rhetoric of leaders like Malaysia’s former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to cement unity among the disparate members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, will also be watching to see if Obama will pay closer attention to them than Bush did in all his eight years in the White House,” Hardev Kaur, an editor for Malaysia’s leading newspaper, the New Straits Times.

One of the more difficult issues facing US relations with the region will be Burma. Although it remains to be seen whether the Obama administration will be able to make a breakthrough on Burma, the US ambassador to the UN-designate, Susan Rice, said last week that she favored “multilateral sanctions” with the support of regional powers as a measure to put pressure on the Burmese junta to release political prisoners and restore democracy in the country.

READ MORE---> Mixed Reactions to Obama in Southeast Asia...