In this Chinese fable the chicken upsets the fox in his lair

The Powerful Right of Sovereignty, Business plus Values
a lesson for Burma

Illustration: Rocco Fazzari
By Peter Hartcher

(SMH) -Kevin Rudd studied China's most famous political prisoner, Wei Jingsheng, for his university thesis. Today Wei Jingsheng studies Kevin Rudd.

"The Chinese Government is putting the Australian Government through a trial with the arrest of Stern Hu," Wei said this week through an interpreter.

Wei has a bit of experience with the Chinese justice system - he spent 18 years in jail and now lives in exile in the US. Stern Hu, an iron ore negotiator for Rio Tinto, was arrested for allegedly stealing state secrets. So was Wei, an electrician at the Beijing Zoo at the time.

"I was locked up because I offended Deng Xiaoping [China's leader at the time]. But of course they fabricated a charge that I stole state secrets - this is the approach the Chinese Government likes to take with people to put them down."

And under the Chinese Communist Party the state can classify anything it likes as a "state secret", even the most innocuous information, at any time and on any whim.

"It's obvious now the Chinese Government is attempting to put down the Australian Government, not Stern Hu. And it's quite evident that it is putting down the Australian Government as a precedent for other governments around the world."

Wei, who is visiting Australia, embraces the metaphor in the old Chinese folk saying - kill the chicken to frighten the monkey. Australia is the chicken. Who is the monkey?

"The first monkey is Europe," targeted after Nicolas Sarkozy, president of France and chair of the European Union at the time, decided to meet the Dalai Lama last year. China reacted with the fury it always employs when heads of government recognise the exiled leader of the Tibetan campaign for autonomy from China.

"And the biggest monkey is the US."

But if China wants to make an example of someone, why choose Australia? Wei lists three reasons: "Australia has a prime minister who thinks he knows a lot about China, when actually he doesn't. Because Kevin Rudd has many relationships with China, the Chinese Government is hoping that because of these ties he will not make a strong reaction.

"Second, historically, Australia is one of the weakest countries in dealing with China. Third, Australia is just a small place."

Wei wants Australia to understand that it is engaged in a high-stakes struggle. "The chicken and the fox" - his animal metaphor for China because it is cunning and invasive - "have co-existed peacefully for years, but now the situation has changed. I think the chicken is in shock. It's still deciding whether it wants to put up a fight. If it doesn't fight it will be killed. But it may not realise it has a sharp beak and it can fight back."

Wei is wrong on these assertions. Rudd and his senior ministers set out very deliberately to change Australia's policy in dealing with China. The Rudd Government understands very well that it is the target of Chinese anger. And the Government is keenly aware that Australia has serious leverage in the relationship - it knows it has a sharp beak.

But Wei's misapprehension is quite understandable. Rudd has never articulated an overall Australian approach. The Foreign Minister, Stephen Smith, really only started to speak about the dispute openly this week.

What has changed?

John Howard had an early clash with China. It was inadvertent, not intentional. And it shook him.

As Howard took office in 1996, China was in an angry confrontation with Taiwan. The US deployed two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Straits in a clear warning to China.

Within days Australia made a strong but lonely public statement of support for the US deployment. Four months later the Howard Government announced the ''reinvigoration'' of the Australian security alliance with the US.

"China feels that the new Government in Australia last year shifted to the US," said a leading Chinese strategic thinker, Dr Yan Xuetong, head of the Centre for China's Foreign Policy Studies, at the time.

"The Chinese interpretation was that Australia had decided to join a US policy of containing China.''

Beijing put Australia into deep diplomatic freeze for almost a year. Howard got the message. He changed China policy dramatically. This is how he phrased it in 1997: "Australia and China are very different societies, our histories have been very different, our political systems have been very different, but our relationship has always been at its very best. Each of us has fully understood the depth of those differences yet resolved to work together to capitalise on the areas of mutual benefit and common interest. It is always important in a relationship between two very different societies that you put aside those differences and you focus on those areas of common agreement."

It became a briskly "business first'' approach. Sometimes it verged on being "business only." Howard put human rights issues into a tank called a human rights dialogue, a lower-level dialogue of the deaf, from which they never emerged.

Rudd made a dramatic departure from this policy. On his first visit to China as prime minister, he addressed Chinese students in Beijing University in their own language. On Chinese soil, and very deliberately, he said the unspeakable. In April last year he said that while Australia recognised Chinese sovereignty over Tibet, "we also believe it is necessary to recognise there are significant human rights problems in Tibet".

He called for dialogue between China and the Dalai Lama to broker a long-term solution to the administration of Tibet. China protested. Rudd stood firm: ''I think this relationship is broad enough to tolerate disagreement, and on these questions I'll be putting my views forthrightly."

Instead of "business first" or "business only", Australia's policy shifted to being "business plus values". It became very clear that this was not a one-off when Smith defied China and granted a visa to the exiled Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer.

Smith told Parliament quite forthrightly this week: "The Chinese authorities at a range of levels, including my counterpart, Foreign Minister Yang, made very strong representations to Australia about the proposed visit to Australia of Rebiya Kadeer and made representations to us that we should prevent her visit. I considered those representations and came to the conclusion that there was no basis for denying her entry to Australia."

China accuses her of being a "separatist terrorist". Smith said that "exhaustive" research showed she was not a terrorist but merely someone with whom China's government disagreed. China protested by cancelling a ministerial visit to Australia.

Smith added: "I vaguely remember the Leader of the Opposition saying to the Government some time ago that we should stand up to China. We did on the Rebiya Kadeer issue."

It was a clear message to China - we will not allow you to veto our sovereign right to set immigration policy. Smith also gave a spirited defence of the principle of freedom of speech. The chicken has decided to put up a fight.

Senior officials in the Australian Government believe that Beijing has four principal grievances against Australia at the moment. First was Rudd's speech on Tibet.

Second was the collapse of the bid by China's state-owned Chinalco to buy a bigger stake in Rio Tinto. It was a rebuff to China's ambitions, and it stung.

Stern Hu was duly arrested. Since then, Beijing has downgraded the charge against him from stealing state secrets to stealing trade secrets. That reduces the potential punishment from the death penalty to a seven-year jail term. But the vengeful anger smoulders still.

Third was Australia's defence white paper, which nominated China as potentially the biggest source of instability in the Asia-Pacific.

Fourth was the visa for Rebiya Kadeer. Taken together, it's enough for Chinese state-controlled media to denounce the "sinophobic government" of Kevin Rudd, as it did this week.

Yet despite the rage in Beijing, the economic relationship is thriving, utterly untouched by the diplomatic storm. This week's gas deal was stunning. China invited the Resources Minister, Martin Ferguson, for the ceremonial signing of the biggest business deal in Australian history, the $50 billion, 20-year deal to buy liquefied natural gas from the Gorgon field. Ferguson also met a senior Chinese minister, Zhang Ping, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission.

At the same time, China's Commerce Minister, Chen Deming, has agreed to a new round of negotiations for a free trade agreement with Australia. In talks with the Trade Minister, Simon Crean, Chen even proposed a new formula for making progress in the stalled talks.

This is Australia's leverage. For China's successful rise it needs ever-growing quantities of food and fuel in a world that will be increasingly short of both. The chicken has a sharp beak and strong claws.

The Rudd policy of "business plus values" is drawing a lot of noise from Beijing but no real price. Not yet, at least. The next big test will be the Dalai Lama's proposed visit to Australia in November.

As for Wei Jingsheng, asked whether he planned to meet Rudd during his visit to Australia, he said: "I am close to Kevin Rudd, but given his position now I will not make trouble for him." The Dalai Lama will make trouble enough. Wei laughed: "The Dalai Lama and Rebiya Kadeer are good friends of mine. We take it in turns to visit to make trouble." The fox will not be amused. More tests lie ahead.

Peter Hartcher is the Herald's international editor.

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Army braced for more fighting at Burma border

(The Nation) -The Thai Army yesterday sent more heavy weapons, including mortars, into border areas near the fighting, on the orders of Third Region Army commander Lt-General Thanongsak Apirakyothin.

The mortars were installed in Tak's Tha Song Yang district to fire warning shots against any stray shells from the Burmese side of the border.

The commander said Thailand would take progressive measures in reaction to any violation of sovereignty.

Thanongsak yesterday visited a military unit in Tha Song Yang district and saw 458 war refugees there.

He was briefed by local officials that 1,714 refugees had arrived and more were expected.

The general instructed officers to work with administrative officials to take good care of the refugees, most of whom are children and elderly people, though it is expected that if the battle becomes intense young adults will follow.

READ MORE---> Army braced for more fighting at Burma border...

Riot Police to be Replaced with New Border Defense Forces in Western Burma

Maungdaw (Narinjara): The Burmese military junta has plans to replace riot police with a new border defense force in the two Arakanese border townships of Buthidaung and Maungdaw, said a police officer who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"It has been heard that two riot battalions will be replaced by border defense forces that are now under formation throughout the border area of Burma. The plan will be implemented before the 2010 election," the officer said.

The Burmese military junta is now trying to form the border guard force with many armed ceasefire groups in the ethnic areas of Burma, primarily in the east and north of Burma.

The border guard forces will be placed under the Kha Kha Kyi and will be directly controlled by senior army officials from Naypyidaw.

The police officer said, "The authority has plans for all border areas in Burma to be guarded by the new border defense force before the 2010 election and the border defense force will be formed as soon as possible by the Burmese military authority."

Because of this plan, the military authority is now forcing the ceasefire ethnic groups to reform their forces with the name of the border defense force to guard the border areas.

"Yes, our government has proposed the ethnic ceasefire armed groups on the eastern borders serve as border guards under its supervision before its upcoming election in 2010," he said.

In the western border area, there are no ceasefire groups, but the army authority will form the border defense force with soldiers from the Burmese army to guard the western border.

"All ceasefire groups including the DKBA will be transformed into border guards under the direct supervision of army officers. There will be no particular name of the groups after the transformation and the force is supposed to be in effect from 2010 in all border areas of the country," said the officer, adding, "I do not know if such ethnic groups will come to the western border area for guarding after they are reformed into a border defense force."

A reliable source said the high military authority has already ordered local army officers to prepare for the formation of border defense forces in Arakan State.

The largest and most friendly ceasefire group with the junta is the United Wa State Army in northeast Burma. The USWA was also pressured by the military junta to reform into a border defense force but the armed group refused the junta's proposal. Relations between the USWA and the junta subsequently deteriorated.

The western border has its own border security force, Nasaka, which is a combined force of several government agencies, including the army, police, customs, and immigration. There is no information available about whether the Nasaka forces will continue to exist once the new border forces are formed.

Nasaka forces were already dissolved once in Burma after former Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt was ousted from power.

READ MORE---> Riot Police to be Replaced with New Border Defense Forces in Western Burma...

NLD claims junta only interested in own security

(DVB)–Burma’s warning to its neighbours to respect its sovereignty should only be interpreted as an attempt to guard the security of the Burmese junta and not its citizens, the National League for Democracy said yesterday.

Responding to a statement given by Burma’s deputy defence minister at the weekend that called for regional countries to steer clear of interfering in domestic matters for fear of affecting “the peace and security of the region”, NLD member Win Tin said it was a reaction to mounting international pressure.

“He [Aye Myint] is absolutely right, but the ‘security’ he was talking about is not the security for the people and the politicians in our country,” said Win Tin.

“He was talking about the security of the military regime itself, which is now facing a growing threat in the country as the international pressure increases.”

Deputy defence minister Aye Myint had been addressing a meeting of regional defence officials in Singapore.

The meeting came amidst mounting international pressure on the regime to release Aung San Suu Kyi, who is on trial for allegedly breaching conditions of her house arrest.

Thailand, who holds close ties to the regime and has in the past been reluctant to pass criticism, has become increasingly vocal as Suu Kyi’s trial has progressed.

Burma last week reacted angrily to Thailand’s “grave concern”, warning it not to interfere in Burma’s internal affairs for fear of setting a bad precedent within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, which follows a line of non-interference in member countries domestic affairs.

Yet the Suu Kyi trial has brought to light a debate over whether Burma’s internal problems are now affecting the region, with Thailand’s ASEAN chief stoking the flames with comments to the effect that Burma was now tarnishing the bloc’s image.

Speaking on the sidelines of talks between ASEAN and European Union leaders in Hanoi last week, Surin Pitsuwan warned of damage to the bloc’s credibility, with Burma an ever more controversial member.

"The discussion in the room back there was that [Suu Kyi’s trial]... affects ASEAN's image and ASEAN's collective interests," he told reporters.

Reporting by Khin Hnin Htet

READ MORE---> NLD claims junta only interested in own security...

Burma 'necessitates' foreign intervention

(DVB)–The political and humanitarian crisis in Burma has reached a point whereby it is affecting neighbouring countries and therefore justifies foreign interference, said the head of a pan-Asian coalition group on Burma.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc, of which Burma is a contentious member, has come under fire recently for its policy of non-interference after refusing to go beyond vocal criticism of the trial of Burma’s Aung San Suu Kyi.

Thailand, who holds the revolving chair of ASEAN, expressed “grave concern” last week but said it would not use strong measures or economic sanctions to pressure the regime into releasing Suu Kyi.

But Debbie Stothard, coordinator of Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma (ALTSEAN-Burma), says that the non-interference policy should not apply to Burma.

“We see that the situation in Burma is not just a domestic affair,” she said, adding that millions of refugees have left Burma for neighbouring countries.

“So this is a situation you must interfere in; if you don’t interfere all the other countries will also be affected.”

The comments were backed by Thai MP, Kraisak Choonhavan, who also heads the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus.

“I think it necessitates international or forced intervention,” he said.

“It would be very difficult to arrive at that, but now there is a movement of those who want to protect the people of Burma by bringing the International Criminal Court (ICC) into play.

“If they [ICC] are in their right mind and they go through the facts, there is no denying that [junta leader] Than Shwe and his cronies should be persecuted at the ICC.

“But politics gets in the way – Russia and China always opposes that, and that is the biggest obstacle to overcome.”

Reporting by Soe Naing and Francis Wade

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North Korea detonates nuclear bomb

Nuclear test: This black and white satellite image shows the site.
Explosion: A satellite image showing the site of a previous North Korean weapons test (AFP)

By North Asia correspondent Mark Willacy and wires

(ABC Australia) -North Korea's state media has confirmed the communist state has conducted a nuclear weapons test.

It is believed the blast was much stronger than Pyongyang's first test in 2006.

South Korea says weather agency officials detected what they called an artificial earthquake in the communist North this morning.

The government in Seoul immediately accused North Korea of conducting a nuclear weapons test.

Two hours later the secretive communist regime confirmed via its state media that it had detonated a nuclear device, saying the underground test was successful and was part of the country's nuclear deterrent policy.

In response, South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak called an emergency national security council meeting, while Japan's government said it had set up a crisis task force.

The Stalinist North last staged a nuclear test in October 2006 but it is believed this blast was much bigger.

Location unknown

The brief report by Pyongyang's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) gave no details of the location of the test.

However, South Korean officials said a tremor was detected around the north-eastern town of Kilju, near where the first test was conducted in October 2006.

"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea successfully conducted one more underground nuclear test on May 25 as part of the measures to bolster up its nuclear deterrent for self-defence in every way as requested by its scientists and technicians," the KCNA report said.

A spokesman for Japan's foreign ministry said it would respond to North Korea's nuclear test "in a responsible fashion" at the United Nations.

Meanwhile, a US State Department spokesman said the Obama administration was not able to confirm "at this time" that a nuclear test had been carried out.

Second test threat

The North had threatened a second test in protest at the UN Security Council's decision to censure its April 5 long-range rocket launch.

It announced it was quitting six-nation nuclear disarmament talks and would restart its plutonium-making program.

The communist state said the test had greatly inspired the army and people.

"The successful nuclear test is greatly inspiring the army and people of the DPRK all out in the 150-day campaign, intensifying the drive for effecting a new revolutionary surge to open the gate to a thriving nation," the KCNA report said.

"The test will contribute to defending the sovereignty of the country and the nation and socialism and ensuring peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and the region around it with the might of [the military first policy] Songun."

Tremor

The US Geological Survey said it detected what it called a 4.7-magnitude earthquake in North Korea.

The tremor struck at 9:54am (local time), 375 kilometres north-east of Pyongyang at a depth of just 10 kilometres, it said.

"Both South Korean and US intelligence authorities are analysing and closely monitoring the situation," a presidential spokesman in Seoul said.

The test was staged while South Korea was in mourning for former President Roh Moo-Hyun, who died Saturday after being questioned in a corruption probe.

North Korea carried out what it called a rocket launch on April 5, but the United States, South Korea and Japan said it staged a disguised ballistic missile test.

After the UN Security Council condemned the launch and tightened sanctions, the North vowed to conduct a second nuclear test as well as ballistic missile tests unless the UN apologised.

The United States has been involved in negotiations with the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia aimed at scrapping North Korea's nuclear programme in exchange for energy aid under a landmark six-party agreement signed in 2007.

The negotiations deadlocked over a dispute with North Korea over how to verify disarmament, before taking a sharp turn for the worse with the long-range rocket launch.

READ MORE---> North Korea detonates nuclear bomb...